Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 77%.
Recomputed each sync: last updated Oct 8, 8:02 AM.
5,326 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.
Only 0.8% of supply listed: low sell pressure.
~9.6 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.
A random in-game drop (22 dropped). It was never sold in the store, so supply is capped by the drop rate.
Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.
Down 49% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.
Trading 300% over our supply/rarity model's estimate; richly priced versus comparable skins.
Supply is fixed; every new owner must buy on the market.
The listed price sits 79% above the best standing bid of $9.33; you could not actually sell there right now.
The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.
Signals are informational only: not financial advice.
The clearest read here is the gap between quoted and real demand: the $11.79 ask sits 79% above the best standing bid of $9.33, with a 23.3% spread and a cumulative bid floor down at $7.04, which puts the phantom-price flag ahead of everything else in this pack. The model agrees, placing the item 300% above modelled fair value, a 95th-percentile residual. Supply context is mixed: 5,326 units are now fixed with 30d supply growth in the 5th percentile, but only 554 unique owners hold them and 44 listings are live against a liquidity score of 18. Price is flat over 24h and down 8.7% on the week. With beta in the 87th cohort percentile, patience for a bid-side print closer to $9.33 looks better supported than the current ask.
AI-generated from live market data · updated 17h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Return (3d) | — | — | — |
| Return (7d) | -3.7% | 47 | 52 |
| Return (14d) | -6.1% | — | — |
| Return (30d) | -13.7% | 59 | 62 |
| Return (60d) | -38.1% | — | — |
| Return (90d) | -42.3% | 45 | 49 |
| Return (all) | -86.7% | — | — |
| Log return (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Log return (3d) | — | — | — |
| Log return (7d) | -3.7% | — | — |
| Log return (14d) | -6.2% | — | — |
| Log return (30d) | -14.7% | — | — |
| Log return (60d) | -47.9% | — | — |
| Log return (90d) | -54.9% | — | — |
| Log return (all) | -201.9% | — | — |
| High (24h) | — | — | — |
| High (3d) | $11.79 | — | — |
| High (7d) | $12.24 | — | — |
| High (14d) | $12.58 | — | — |
| High (30d) | $13.66 | — | — |
| High (60d) | $19.04 | — | — |
| High (90d) | $23.02 | — | — |
| High (all) | $113.41 | — | — |
| Low (24h) | — | — | — |
| Low (3d) | $11.79 | — | — |
| Low (7d) | $11.79 | — | — |
| Low (14d) | $11.35 | — | — |
| Low (30d) | $10.00 | — | — |
| Low (60d) | $10.00 | — | — |
| Low (90d) | $10.00 | — | — |
| Low (all) | $10.00 | — | — |
| Mean price (24h) | — | — | — |
| Mean price (3d) | $11.79 | — | — |
| Mean price (7d) | $11.90 | — | — |
| Mean price (14d) | $12.03 | — | — |
| Mean price (30d) | $12.48 | — | — |
| Mean price (60d) | $14.32 | — | — |
| Mean price (90d) | $16.79 | — | — |
| Mean price (all) | $32.57 | — | — |
| Median price (24h) | — | — | — |
| Median price (3d) | $11.79 | — | — |
| Median price (7d) | $11.79 | — | — |
| Median price (14d) | $12.02 | — | — |
| Median price (30d) | $12.39 | — | — |
| Median price (60d) | $13.58 | — | — |
| Median price (90d) | $17.98 | — | — |
| Median price (all) | $22.85 | — | — |
| Range % (24h) | — | — | — |
| Range % (3d) | — | — | — |
| Range % (7d) | +3.8% | — | — |
| Range % (14d) | +10.8% | — | — |
| Range % (30d) | +36.6% | — | — |
| Range % (60d) | +90.4% | — | — |
| Range % (90d) | +130.2% | — | — |
| Range % (all) | +1034.1% | — | — |
| Position in range (24h) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (3d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (7d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (14d) | 36 | — | — |
| Position in range (30d) | 49 | — | — |
| Position in range (60d) | 20 | — | — |
| Position in range (90d) | 14 | 53 | 55 |
| Position in range (all) | 2 | — | — |
| Distance from high (24h) | — | — | — |
| Distance from high (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (7d) | -3.7% | — | — |
| Distance from high (14d) | -6.3% | — | — |
| Distance from high (30d) | -13.7% | — | — |
| Distance from high (60d) | -38.1% | — | — |
| Distance from high (90d) | -48.8% | 61 | 63 |
| Distance from high (all) | -89.6% | — | — |
| Distance from low (24h) | — | — | — |
| Distance from low (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (14d) | +3.9% | — | — |
| Distance from low (30d) | +17.9% | — | — |
| Distance from low (60d) | +17.9% | — | — |
| Distance from low (90d) | +17.9% | — | — |
| Distance from low (all) | +17.9% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (24h) | — | — | — |
| Price vs mean (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (7d) | -0.9% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (14d) | -2.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (30d) | -5.5% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (60d) | -17.6% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (90d) | -29.8% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (all) | -63.8% | — | — |
| Up days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (14d) | 2 | — | — |
| Up days (30d) | 5 | — | — |
| Up days (60d) | 9 | — | — |
| Up days (90d) | 17 | — | — |
| Up days (all) | 44 | — | — |
| Down days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (7d) | 1 | — | — |
| Down days (14d) | 5 | — | — |
| Down days (30d) | 13 | — | — |
| Down days (60d) | 32 | — | — |
| Down days (90d) | 43 | — | — |
| Down days (all) | 109 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (24h) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (3d) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (14d) | 29 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (30d) | 28 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (60d) | 22 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (90d) | 28 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (all) | 29 | — | — |
| Up-day streak | 0.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (7) | — | — | — |
| RSI (14) | — | — | — |
| RSI (21) | — | — | — |
| RSI (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (50) | — | — | — |
| RSI (100) | — | — | — |
| Trend slope (14d) | -0.8% | — | — |
| Trend slope (30d) | -0.6% | 55 | 57 |
| Trend slope (60d) | -1.2% | — | — |
| Trend slope (90d) | -1.0% | — | — |
| Trend slope (all) | -1.3% | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (14d) | 0.42× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (30d) | 0.28× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (60d) | 0.78× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (90d) | 0.82× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (all) | 0.64× | — | — |
| SMA 7/30 cross | — | — | — |
| Days since trend flip | 9.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return stdev (7d) | +2.2% | — | — |
| Return stdev (14d) | +4.0% | — | — |
| Return stdev (30d) | +9.1% | 31 | 31 |
| Return stdev (60d) | +6.7% | — | — |
| Return stdev (90d) | +6.0% | — | — |
| Return stdev (all) | +9.7% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (30d) | +5.5% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (60d) | +4.4% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (90d) | +4.3% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (30d) | +26.8% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (60d) | +47.5% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (90d) | +56.6% | 31 | 29 |
| Max drawdown (all) | +91.2% | — | — |
| Current drawdown (90d) | +48.8% | 38 | 37 |
| Current drawdown (all) | +89.6% | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (90d) | 75d | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (all) | 179d | — | — |
| Sortino ratio (30d) | -0.06× | 44 | 43 |
| Sortino ratio (90d) | -0.13× | — | — |
| Return skew (30d) | 2.17 | — | — |
| Return skew (90d) | 2.24 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (30d) | 8.94 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (90d) | 14.17 | — | — |
| Largest up day (7d) | — | — | — |
| Largest up day (14d) | +7.8% | — | — |
| Largest up day (30d) | +34.3% | — | — |
| Largest up day (60d) | +34.3% | — | — |
| Largest up day (90d) | +34.3% | — | — |
| Largest down day (7d) | +3.7% | — | — |
| Largest down day (14d) | +7.1% | — | — |
| Largest down day (30d) | +17.9% | — | — |
| Largest down day (60d) | +17.9% | — | — |
| Largest down day (90d) | +17.9% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover % | — | — | — |
| On-market % | +0.8% | 20 | 20 |
| Days to clear listings | — | — | — |
| Lifetime sales / day | needs provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime sales | — | — |
| Liquidity score | 8 | 20 | 21 |
| Listings on book | 45 | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Listings trend (7d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (14d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Bid-ask spread % | +16.8% | — | — |
| Near-mid bid imbalance | 0.50× | — | — |
| Bid-depth trend (7d) | -83.3% | — | — |
| Bid-floor migration (7d) | -26.8% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply growth (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (14d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (30d) | +0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Supply growth (60d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (90d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Owner growth (7d) | +0.7% | — | — |
| Owner growth (14d) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Owner growth (30d) | +0.4% | 27 | 29 |
| Owner growth (60d) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Owner growth (90d) | +0.7% | — | — |
| Mint rate (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Mint rate (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Supply doubling time | — | — | — |
| Copies per owner | 9.61× | 36 | 36 |
| Top-1 holder share | +4.5% | 64 | 58 |
| Top-10 holder share | +17.2% | 66 | 58 |
| HHI (top-10) | 49.01 | — | — |
| Whale count (≥5) | 10 | — | — |
| Absorption (30d) | +0.4% | 51 | 51 |
| Absorption (60d) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Absorption (90d) | +0.7% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 358d | — | — |
| Days since fixation | — | — | — |
| Days until leaving storen/s | — | — | — |
| Release-price multiple | 1.18× | 70 | 70 |
| Store-price ratio | 1.18× | — | — |
| Fair-value residual | +300.0% | 95 | 95 |
| Price per scarcity point | 0.47× | — | — |
| Instant-sell discount | +20.9% | — | — |
| Bid-floor backing | $7.01 | — | — |
| Accumulation score | 30 | — | — |
| Market-relative 7d return | -1.1% | 47 | 52 |
| Momentum pillar | 49 | 46 | 44 |
| Scarcity pillar | 25 | — | — |
| Liquidity pillar | 23 | — | — |
| Value pillar | 35 | — | — |
| Risk pillar | 39 | — | — |
| Overall rating | 37 | 19 | 17 |
| Data completeness | +76.6% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta vs market (14d) | 0.51× | — | — |
| Beta vs market (30d) | 1.39× | 88 | 89 |
| Beta vs market (90d) | 0.05× | — | — |
| Market correlation (14d) | 0.40× | — | — |
| Market correlation (30d) | 0.53× | — | — |
| Market correlation (90d) | 0.04× | — | — |
| Return vs market (14d) | -5.7% | — | — |
| Return vs market (30d) | +1.3% | 59 | 62 |
| Return vs market (90d) | -29.3% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spike days (30d) | 1 | 25 | 25 |
| Spike days (60d) | 1 | — | — |
| Spike days (90d) | 2 | — | — |
| Dump days (30d) | 1 | 25 | 25 |
| Dump days (60d) | 1 | — | — |
| Dump days (90d) | 1 | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (30d) | -0.3% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (60d) | -0.3% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (90d) | -0.1% | — | — |
| Listing shocks (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Net spike bias (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (60d) | 0 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (90d) | 1 | — | — |
Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.