Pumpkin Head 2025full analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 258 values across 7 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 91%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply

Insight Engine v2

42/ 100

Momentum61

Scarcity26

Liquidity25

Value39

Risk48

Recomputed each sync: last updated Jul 9, 10:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Bullish

Elevated supply

5,326 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.

Holders are holding !!

Only 0.8% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Illiquid

No sales in the last 24h; it may be hard to buy or sell at the quoted price.

Concentrated ownership

~9.7 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Delisted from store !!

No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.

High volatility

Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.

Deep drawdown

Down 80% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

The most striking figure here is the price sitting 300% above the modelled fair value, placing this item in the 95th percentile for fair-value residual across the market, even as the price itself has fallen 13.8% over the past week and 9.7% behind the market median over that span. Liquidity is thin: only 42 units are listed against 5,326 in existence, zero traded in the last 24h, and just 2 executed sales, landing this item in the 5th percentile for turnover. The 21.5% bid/ask spread and a standing bid of $16.57 against a $21.08 ask underscore that gap. Ownership is concentrated among 550 holders, and with the item delisted and supply fixed, the bullish "holders holding" and "bids accumulating" signals sit against a still-elevated valuation and a market-wide fear signal.

AI-generated from live market data · updated 6h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

108/113 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return (24h)	+0.1%	—	—
Return (3d)	-0.7%	—	—
Return (7d)	-16.1%	34	39
Return (14d)

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.

Trend

30/38 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
SMA (7)	$21.89	—	—
Price vs SMA (7)	-3.7%	—	—
SMA (14)	$23.64	—	—
Price vs SMA (14)	-10.8%	—	—
SMA (21)	$23.51	—	—
Price vs SMA (21)	-10.3%	—	—
SMA (30)	$23.96	—	—
Price vs SMA (30)	-12.0%	77	77
SMA (50)	$23.96	—	—
Price vs SMA (50)	-12.0%	—	—
SMA (90)	$42.21	—	—
Price vs SMA (90)	-50.1%	—	—
SMA (100)	—	—	—
Price vs SMA (100)	—	—	—
EMA (7)	$21.89	—	—
Price vs EMA (7)	-3.7%	—	—
EMA (14)	$23.64	—	—
Price vs EMA (14)	-10.8%	—	—
EMA (30)	$23.96	—	—
Price vs EMA (30)	-12.0%	—	—
RSI (7)	—	—	—
RSI (14)	—	—	—
RSI (21)	—	—	—
RSI (30)	—	—	—
RSI (50)	—	—	—
RSI (100)	—	—	—
Trend slope (14d)	-1.8%	—	—
Trend slope (30d)	-0.3%	90	81
Trend slope (60d)	-0.8%	—	—
Trend slope (90d)	-2.0%	—	—
Trend slope (all)	-2.0%	—	—
Trend fit R² (14d)	0.54×	—	—
Trend fit R² (30d)	0.09×	—	—
Trend fit R² (60d)	0.36×	—	—
Trend fit R² (90d)	0.72×	—	—
Trend fit R² (all)	0.75×	—	—
SMA 7/30 cross	-8.7%	84	78
Days since trend flip	5.0d	—	—

Volatility & risk

33/33 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return stdev (7d)	+4.8%	—	—
Return stdev (14d)	+7.7%	—	—
Return stdev (30d)	+8.8%	27	39
Return stdev (60d)	+9.0%	—	—
Return stdev (90d)	+11.5%	—	—
Return stdev (all)	+11.6%	—	—
Downside deviation (30d)	+4.0%	—	—
Downside deviation (60d)	+4.3%	—	—
Downside deviation (90d)	+7.1%	—	—
Max drawdown (30d)	+29.1%	—	—
Max drawdown (60d)	+55.3%	—	—
Max drawdown (90d)	+82.0%	34	34
Max drawdown (all)	+83.7%	—	—
Current drawdown (90d)	+79.5%	34	37
Current drawdown (all)	+81.4%	—	—
Drawdown duration (90d)	88d	—	—
Drawdown duration (all)	90d	—	—
Sortino ratio (30d)	0.05×	87	83
Sortino ratio (90d)	-0.15×	—	—
Return skew (30d)	1.12	—	—
Return skew (90d)	0.33	—	—
Excess kurtosis (30d)	0.87	—	—
Excess kurtosis (90d)	2.03	—	—
Largest up day (7d)	+1.6%	—	—
Largest up day (14d)	+23.0%	—	—
Largest up day (30d)	+23.0%	—	—
Largest up day (60d)	+28.6%	—	—
Largest up day (90d)	+29.4%	—	—
Largest down day (7d)	+9.1%	—	—
Largest down day (14d)	+9.1%	—	—
Largest down day (30d)	+14.3%	—	—
Largest down day (60d)	+15.5%	—	—
Largest down day (90d)	+34.4%	—	—

Liquidity

11/20 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Turnover %	+0.0%	5	5
On-market %	+0.8%	15	21
Days to clear listings	—	—	—
Lifetime sales / day	19.81	—	—
Liquidity score	22	30	30
Listings on book	42	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Listings trend (7d)	+1.2%	—	—
Listings trend (14d)	-14.6%	—	—
Listings trend (30d)	-6.8%	25	36
Listings trend (60d)	-28.1%	—	—
Bid-ask spread %	+21.5%	—	—
Near-mid bid imbalance	—	—	—
Bid-depth trend (7d)	—	—	—
Bid-floor migration (7d)	+9.7%	—	—

Supply & ownership

20/21 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Supply growth (7d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (14d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (30d)	+0.0%	25	50
Supply growth (60d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (90d)	+0.0%	—	—
Owner growth (7d)	+0.2%	—	—
Owner growth (14d)	+0.0%	—	—
Owner growth (30d)	+0.2%	28	43
Owner growth (60d)	+24.2%	—	—
Owner growth (90d)	+117.4%	—	—
Mint rate (7d)	0	—	—
Mint rate (30d)	0	—	—
Supply doubling time	—	—	—
Copies per owner	9.68×	36	36
Top-1 holder share	+4.5%	61	59
Top-10 holder share	+16.3%	67	61
HHI (top-10)	47.92	—	—
Whale count (≥5)	10	—	—
Absorption (30d)	+0.2%	41	51
Absorption (60d)	+24.2%	—	—
Absorption (90d)	+117.4%	—	—

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Age	269d	—	—
Days since fixation	—	—	—
Days until leaving storen/s	—	—	—
Release-price multiple	2.11×	79	80
Store-price ratio	2.11×	—	—
Fair-value residual	+300.0%	95	95
Price per scarcity point	0.81×	—	—
Instant-sell discount	+21.4%	—	—
Bid-floor backing	$16.57	—	—
Accumulation score	66	—	—
Market-relative 7d return	-9.7%	31	37
Momentum pillar	61	89	85
Scarcity pillar	26	—	—
Liquidity pillar	25	—	—
Value pillar	39	—	—
Risk pillar	48	—	—
Overall rating	44	37	39
Data completeness	+90.6%	—	—

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Spike days (30d)	3	90	75
Spike days (60d)	6	—	—
Spike days (90d)	9	—	—
Dump days (30d)	0	5	5
Dump days (60d)	1	—	—
Dump days (90d)	4	—	—
Post-spike reversion (30d)	-5.5%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (60d)	-3.3%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (90d)	+0.2%	—	—
Listing shocks (30d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (60d)	1	—	—
Listing shocks (90d)	2	—	—
Net spike bias (30d)	3	—	—
Net spike bias (60d)	5	—	—
Net spike bias (90d)	5	—	—