Black Modern Watchfull analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 258 values across 7 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 90%.

Overall rating

?Store · permanent

Insight Engine v2

60/ 100

Momentum49

Scarcity20

Liquidity32

Value96

Risk52

Recomputed each sync: last updated Jul 9, 10:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Slightly bullish

Elevated supply

6,175 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.

Low scarcity score

Scarcity score 20/100: abundant and liquid.

Holders are holding !!

Only 3.3% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Illiquid

No sales in the last 24h; it may be hard to buy or sell at the quoted price.

Concentrated ownership

~11.2 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Below store price

Trading at a 65% discount to the store price.

Oversold (RSI) !!

RSI 29: beaten down and due for a potential bounce.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

Deep drawdown and heavy discounting define Black Modern Watch's current setup, with the ask sitting 88.5% below the model's fair-value estimate and 64.6% under its $0.99 store price at $0.35. The 7-day slide of 3.3% (2.7% behind market median) has come alongside RSI readings flagged as oversold, and holders have largely stayed put despite 6175 units in existence against just 550 unique owners, a concentration the fact pack flags as a warning. Liquidity remains thin: only 1 unit traded in the last 24h and 3 executed sales, against 204 active listings, a 25.8% bid/ask spread, and a 95th-percentile days-to-clear reading. With permanent, uncapped supply keeping scarcity low (score of 20) and momentum tepid at 49, the value case (score 96) is notable but constrained by how little volume currently moves through the order book.

AI-generated from live market data · updated 6h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

108/113 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return (24h)	+0.0%	—	—
Return (3d)	-5.4%	—	—
Return (7d)	-12.5%	40	45
Return (14d)

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.

Trend

30/38 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
SMA (7)	$0.38	—	—
Price vs SMA (7)	-7.5%	—	—
SMA (14)	$0.38	—	—
Price vs SMA (14)	-9.1%	—	—
SMA (21)	$0.40	—	—
Price vs SMA (21)	-12.1%	—	—
SMA (30)	$0.42	—	—
Price vs SMA (30)	-17.5%	63	56
SMA (50)	$0.46	—	—
Price vs SMA (50)	-23.1%	—	—
SMA (90)	$0.67	—	—
Price vs SMA (90)	-48.0%	—	—
SMA (100)	—	—	—
Price vs SMA (100)	—	—	—
EMA (7)	$0.38	—	—
Price vs EMA (7)	-7.5%	—	—
EMA (14)	$0.38	—	—
Price vs EMA (14)	-9.1%	—	—
EMA (30)	$0.42	—	—
Price vs EMA (30)	-17.5%	—	—
RSI (7)	—	—	—
RSI (14)	—	—	—
RSI (21)	—	—	—
RSI (30)	—	—	—
RSI (50)	—	—	—
RSI (100)	—	—	—
Trend slope (14d)	-0.7%	—	—
Trend slope (30d)	-1.2%	75	66
Trend slope (60d)	-1.1%	—	—
Trend slope (90d)	-1.5%	—	—
Trend slope (all)	-1.6%	—	—
Trend fit R² (14d)	0.46×	—	—
Trend fit R² (30d)	0.81×	—	—
Trend fit R² (60d)	0.69×	—	—
Trend fit R² (90d)	0.87×	—	—
Trend fit R² (all)	0.81×	—	—
SMA 7/30 cross	-10.7%	79	74
Days since trend flip	2.0d	—	—

Volatility & risk

32/33 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return stdev (7d)	+2.6%	—	—
Return stdev (14d)	+2.3%	—	—
Return stdev (30d)	+5.0%	5	10
Return stdev (60d)	+13.9%	—	—
Return stdev (90d)	+11.6%	—	—
Return stdev (all)	+11.6%	—	—
Downside deviation (30d)	+4.2%	—	—
Downside deviation (60d)	+11.3%	—	—
Downside deviation (90d)	+9.0%	—	—
Max drawdown (30d)	+30.0%	—	—
Max drawdown (60d)	+60.5%	—	—
Max drawdown (90d)	+73.7%	21	22
Max drawdown (all)	+81.9%	—	—
Current drawdown (90d)	+72.9%	23	23
Current drawdown (all)	+81.3%	—	—
Drawdown duration (90d)	89d	—	—
Drawdown duration (all)	92d	—	—
Sortino ratio (30d)	-0.23×	49	46
Sortino ratio (90d)	-0.09×	—	—
Return skew (30d)	0.03	—	—
Return skew (90d)	1.01	—	—
Excess kurtosis (30d)	4.8	—	—
Excess kurtosis (90d)	10.72	—	—
Largest up day (7d)	—	—	—
Largest up day (14d)	+2.6%	—	—
Largest up day (30d)	+14.6%	—	—
Largest up day (60d)	+54.4%	—	—
Largest up day (90d)	+54.4%	—	—
Largest down day (7d)	+5.4%	—	—
Largest down day (14d)	+5.4%	—	—
Largest down day (30d)	+14.6%	—	—
Largest down day (60d)	+43.3%	—	—
Largest down day (90d)	+43.3%	—	—

Liquidity

11/20 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Turnover %	+0.0%	5	5
On-market %	+3.3%	75	80
Days to clear listings	—	—	—
Lifetime sales / day	14.68	—	—
Liquidity score	29	77	77
Listings on book	203	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Listings trend (7d)	+5.7%	—	—
Listings trend (14d)	+5.7%	—	—
Listings trend (30d)	-2.4%	33	47
Listings trend (60d)	+0.5%	—	—
Bid-ask spread %	+23.0%	—	—
Near-mid bid imbalance	—	—	—
Bid-depth trend (7d)	—	—	—
Bid-floor migration (7d)	+0.0%	—	—

Supply & ownership

21/21 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Supply growth (7d)	+0.2%	—	—
Supply growth (14d)	+0.3%	—	—
Supply growth (30d)	+0.8%	50	62
Supply growth (60d)	+3.3%	—	—
Supply growth (90d)	+33.2%	—	—
Owner growth (7d)n/s	-0.9%	—	—
Owner growth (14d)n/s	-1.6%	—	—
Owner growth (30d)n/s	-1.1%	5	6
Owner growth (60d)n/s	+16.5%	—	—
Owner growth (90d)n/s	+120.0%	—	—
Mint rate (7d)	1.67	—	—
Mint rate (30d)	1.59	—	—
Supply doubling time	2781d	—	—
Copies per ownern/s	11.23×	49	50
Top-1 holder sharen/s	+1.8%	32	25
Top-10 holder sharen/s	+8.1%	35	26
HHI (top-10)n/s	8.03	—	—
Whale count (≥5)n/s	10	—	—
Absorption (30d)n/s	-1.8%	12	10
Absorption (60d)n/s	+13.2%	—	—
Absorption (90d)n/s	+86.8%	—	—

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Age	421d	—	—
Days since fixationn/s	—	—	—
Days until leaving storen/s	—	—	—
Release-price multiple	0.35×	25	25
Store-price ratio	0.35×	—	—
Fair-value residual	-88.5%	5	5
Price per scarcity point	0.02×	—	—
Instant-sell discount	+22.9%	—	—
Bid-floor backing	$0.27	—	—
Accumulation score	57	—	—
Market-relative 7d return	-2.7%	45	49
Momentum pillar	49	54	58
Scarcity pillar	20	—	—
Liquidity pillar	32	—	—
Value pillar	96	—	—
Risk pillar	52	—	—
Overall rating	62	91	91
Data completeness	+90.1%	—	—

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Spike days (30d)	0	5	5
Spike days (60d)	3	—	—
Spike days (90d)	3	—	—
Dump days (30d)	0	5	5
Dump days (60d)	4	—	—
Dump days (90d)	4	—	—
Post-spike reversion (30d)	—	—	—
Post-spike reversion (60d)	-14.2%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (90d)	-14.2%	—	—
Listing shocks (30d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (60d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (90d)	4	—	—
Net spike bias (30d)	0	—	—
Net spike bias (60d)	-1	—	—
Net spike bias (90d)	-1	—	—