Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 78%.
Recomputed each sync: last updated Sep 24, 12:02 PM.
Only 1.6% of supply listed: low sell pressure.
~12.9 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.
No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.
Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.
Down 84% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.
Up 39pts more than the median skin this week: real relative strength.
Trading 55% over our supply/rarity model's estimate; richly priced versus comparable skins.
Supply is fixed; every new owner must buy on the market.
The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.
Signals are informational only: not financial advice.
The ask sits at $5.55 against a $3.00 median sale, exactly the original store price, which puts the listing 54.8% above the model's fair value. That gap is reinforced by a 40.5% bid/ask spread, with the best standing bid only $3.68, and a liquidity score of 11/100, so the quoted price is unlikely to be where trades actually clear. The structural case is real: the hat is delisted with supply fixed at 1771 units, and 90d return ranks in the 95th percentile, 55.3% ahead of the market median over seven days. But 137 owners across that supply flags concentration, the overall grade is C at 42/100, and the 7d move is already -8.7%. Patience on entry looks better supported than chasing the ask.
AI-generated from live market data · updated 21h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Return (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Return (7d) | +38.7% | 89 | 87 |
| Return (14d) | -3.6% | — | — |
| Return (30d) | +35.5% | 80 | 89 |
| Return (60d) | +16.6% | — | — |
| Return (90d) | +47.6% | 95 | 95 |
| Return (all) | +47.6% | — | — |
| Log return (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Log return (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Log return (7d) | +32.8% | — | — |
| Log return (14d) | -3.7% | — | — |
| Log return (30d) | +30.4% | — | — |
| Log return (60d) | +15.4% | — | — |
| Log return (90d) | +38.9% | — | — |
| Log return (all) | +38.9% | — | — |
| High (24h) | — | — | — |
| High (3d) | $5.55 | — | — |
| High (7d) | $5.69 | — | — |
| High (14d) | $5.76 | — | — |
| High (30d) | $6.68 | — | — |
| High (60d) | $35.00 | — | — |
| High (90d) | $35.00 | — | — |
| High (all) | $35.00 | — | — |
| Low (24h) | — | — | — |
| Low (3d) | $5.55 | — | — |
| Low (7d) | $3.99 | — | — |
| Low (14d) | $3.60 | — | — |
| Low (30d) | $3.60 | — | — |
| Low (60d) | $3.60 | — | — |
| Low (90d) | $2.99 | — | — |
| Low (all) | $2.99 | — | — |
| Mean price (24h) | — | — | — |
| Mean price (3d) | $5.55 | — | — |
| Mean price (7d) | $5.06 | — | — |
| Mean price (14d) | $5.03 | — | — |
| Mean price (30d) | $5.36 | — | — |
| Mean price (60d) | $7.03 | — | — |
| Mean price (90d) | $6.02 | — | — |
| Mean price (all) | $6.02 | — | — |
| Median price (24h) | — | — | — |
| Median price (3d) | $5.55 | — | — |
| Median price (7d) | $5.55 | — | — |
| Median price (14d) | $5.55 | — | — |
| Median price (30d) | $5.59 | — | — |
| Median price (60d) | $6.10 | — | — |
| Median price (90d) | $5.35 | — | — |
| Median price (all) | $5.35 | — | — |
| Range % (24h) | — | — | — |
| Range % (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Range % (7d) | +42.6% | — | — |
| Range % (14d) | +60.0% | — | — |
| Range % (30d) | +85.6% | — | — |
| Range % (60d) | +872.2% | — | — |
| Range % (90d) | +1070.6% | — | — |
| Range % (all) | +1070.6% | — | — |
| Position in range (24h) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (3d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (7d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (14d) | 90 | — | — |
| Position in range (30d) | 63 | — | — |
| Position in range (60d) | 6 | — | — |
| Position in range (90d) | 8 | 48 | 47 |
| Position in range (all) | 8 | — | — |
| Distance from high (24h) | — | — | — |
| Distance from high (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (7d) | -2.5% | — | — |
| Distance from high (14d) | -3.6% | — | — |
| Distance from high (30d) | -16.9% | — | — |
| Distance from high (60d) | -84.1% | — | — |
| Distance from high (90d) | -84.1% | 20 | 19 |
| Distance from high (all) | -84.1% | — | — |
| Distance from low (24h) | — | — | — |
| Distance from low (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (7d) | +39.1% | — | — |
| Distance from low (14d) | +54.2% | — | — |
| Distance from low (30d) | +54.2% | — | — |
| Distance from low (60d) | +54.2% | — | — |
| Distance from low (90d) | +85.6% | — | — |
| Distance from low (all) | +85.6% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (24h) | — | — | — |
| Price vs mean (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (7d) | +9.6% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (14d) | +10.3% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (30d) | +3.6% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (60d) | -21.1% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (90d) | -7.9% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (all) | -7.9% | — | — |
| Up days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (7d) | 1 | — | — |
| Up days (14d) | 2 | — | — |
| Up days (30d) | 6 | — | — |
| Up days (60d) | 14 | — | — |
| Up days (90d) | 24 | — | — |
| Up days (all) | 24 | — | — |
| Down days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (7d) | 3 | — | — |
| Down days (14d) | 9 | — | — |
| Down days (30d) | 14 | — | — |
| Down days (60d) | 28 | — | — |
| Down days (90d) | 43 | — | — |
| Down days (all) | 43 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (24h) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (3d) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (7d) | 25 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (14d) | 18 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (30d) | 30 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (60d) | 33 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (90d) | 36 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (all) | 36 | — | — |
| Up-day streak | 0.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (7) | — | — | — |
| RSI (14) | — | — | — |
| RSI (21) | — | — | — |
| RSI (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (50) | — | — | — |
| RSI (100) | — | — | — |
| Trend slope (14d) | -0.3% | — | — |
| Trend slope (30d) | -0.5% | 53 | 55 |
| Trend slope (60d) | -1.2% | — | — |
| Trend slope (90d) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Trend slope (all) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (14d) | 0.00× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (30d) | 0.05× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (60d) | 0.06× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (90d) | 0.02× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (all) | 0.02× | — | — |
| SMA 7/30 cross | — | — | — |
| Days since trend flip | 2.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return stdev (7d) | +16.2% | — | — |
| Return stdev (14d) | +13.7% | — | — |
| Return stdev (30d) | +20.0% | 76 | 76 |
| Return stdev (60d) | +31.8% | — | — |
| Return stdev (90d) | +26.5% | — | — |
| Return stdev (all) | +26.5% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (30d) | +10.6% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (60d) | +15.0% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (90d) | +12.8% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (30d) | +46.1% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (60d) | +89.7% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (90d) | +89.7% | 81 | 82 |
| Max drawdown (all) | +89.7% | — | — |
| Current drawdown (90d) | +84.1% | 80 | 81 |
| Current drawdown (all) | +84.1% | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (90d) | 43d | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (all) | 43d | — | — |
| Sortino ratio (30d) | 0.32× | 76 | 78 |
| Sortino ratio (90d) | 0.43× | — | — |
| Return skew (30d) | 1.45 | — | — |
| Return skew (90d) | 7.23 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (30d) | 2.78 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (90d) | 58.79 | — | — |
| Largest up day (7d) | +42.6% | — | — |
| Largest up day (14d) | +42.6% | — | — |
| Largest up day (30d) | +61.4% | — | — |
| Largest up day (60d) | +423.2% | — | — |
| Largest up day (90d) | +423.2% | — | — |
| Largest down day (7d) | +1.5% | — | — |
| Largest down day (14d) | +20.1% | — | — |
| Largest down day (30d) | +38.0% | — | — |
| Largest down day (60d) | +53.7% | — | — |
| Largest down day (90d) | +53.7% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover % | — | — | — |
| On-market % | +1.6% | 47 | 51 |
| Days to clear listings | — | — | — |
| Lifetime sales / day | needs provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime sales | — | — |
| Liquidity score | 15 | 47 | 51 |
| Listings on book | 29 | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Listings trend (7d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (14d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Bid-ask spread % | +41.1% | — | — |
| Near-mid bid imbalance | — | — | — |
| Bid-depth trend (7d) | -100.0% | — | — |
| Bid-floor migration (7d) | +2.5% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply growth (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (14d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (30d) | +0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Supply growth (60d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (90d) | +64.4% | — | — |
| Owner growth (7d) | -1.4% | — | — |
| Owner growth (14d) | -2.1% | — | — |
| Owner growth (30d) | -3.5% | 5 | 5 |
| Owner growth (60d) | -0.7% | — | — |
| Owner growth (90d) | +168.6% | — | — |
| Mint rate (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Mint rate (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Supply doubling time | — | — | — |
| Copies per owner | 12.93× | 70 | 65 |
| Top-1 holder share | +8.0% | 86 | 82 |
| Top-10 holder share | +16.5% | 66 | 59 |
| HHI (top-10) | 74.43 | — | — |
| Whale count (≥5) | 10 | — | — |
| Absorption (30d) | -3.5% | 23 | 23 |
| Absorption (60d) | -0.7% | — | — |
| Absorption (90d) | +104.2% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 93d | — | — |
| Days since fixation | — | — | — |
| Days until leaving storen/s | — | — | — |
| Release-price multiple | 1.86× | 88 | 89 |
| Store-price ratio | 1.85× | — | — |
| Fair-value residual | +54.6% | 66 | 69 |
| Price per scarcity point | 0.13× | — | — |
| Instant-sell discount | +34.8% | — | — |
| Bid-floor backing | $3.62 | — | — |
| Accumulation score | 31 | — | — |
| Market-relative 7d return | +38.9% | 89 | 87 |
| Momentum pillar | 27 | 5 | 5 |
| Scarcity pillar | 44 | — | — |
| Liquidity pillar | 11 | — | — |
| Value pillar | 50 | — | — |
| Risk pillar | 39 | — | — |
| Overall rating | 40 | 24 | 24 |
| Data completeness | +77.7% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta vs market (14d) | -1.13× | — | — |
| Beta vs market (30d) | -0.76× | 12 | 13 |
| Beta vs market (90d) | 1.08× | — | — |
| Market correlation (14d) | -0.31× | — | — |
| Market correlation (30d) | -0.15× | — | — |
| Market correlation (90d) | 0.15× | — | — |
| Return vs market (14d) | +1.0% | — | — |
| Return vs market (30d) | +27.0% | 80 | 86 |
| Return vs market (90d) | +72.8% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spike days (30d) | 3 | 90 | 90 |
| Spike days (60d) | 5 | — | — |
| Spike days (90d) | 10 | — | — |
| Dump days (30d) | 2 | 75 | 75 |
| Dump days (60d) | 6 | — | — |
| Dump days (90d) | 8 | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (30d) | -13.2% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (60d) | -15.7% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (90d) | -9.6% | — | — |
| Listing shocks (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Net spike bias (30d) | 1 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (60d) | -1 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (90d) | 2 | — | — |
Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.