Wizard Trousersfull analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 258 values across 7 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 91%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply

Insight Engine v2

45/ 100

Momentum50

Scarcity28

Liquidity32

Value61

Risk52

Recomputed each sync: last updated Jul 9, 10:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Slightly bullish

Elevated supply

5,982 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.

Holders are holding !!

Only 0.6% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Concentrated ownership

~8.2 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Delisted from store !!

No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.

High volatility

Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.

Deep drawdown

Down 89% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.

Above modelled fair value !!

Trading 29% over our supply/rarity model's estimate; richly priced versus comparable skins.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

Wizard Trousers presents a split picture: it sits 28.9% above the fair-value model even after a 7-day drop of 14.3%, a decline that has still outpaced the market median by 5.7%. Supply is fixed at 5,982 units following its store delisting, and the "holders are holding" signal points to conviction among the 727 owners, but ownership concentration and a thin order book (36 listed, only 1 unit traded in 24h, a 17.9% bid/ask spread) limit conviction in either direction. With liquidity scored just 32/100 and scarcity 28/100, and the best standing bid at $3.15 well below the $3.77 ask, this reads as a low-volume, above-model setup where the recent pullback has not yet closed the valuation gap.

AI-generated from live market data · updated 6h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

108/113 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return (24h)	-0.5%	—	—
Return (3d)	+10.9%	—	—
Return (7d)	-1.3%	59	63
Return (14d)

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.

Trend

30/38 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
SMA (7)	$3.64	—	—
Price vs SMA (7)	+3.6%	—	—
SMA (14)	$3.94	—	—
Price vs SMA (14)	-4.4%	—	—
SMA (21)	$4.32	—	—
Price vs SMA (21)	-12.8%	—	—
SMA (30)	$4.67	—	—
Price vs SMA (30)	-19.3%	58	61
SMA (50)	$5.88	—	—
Price vs SMA (50)	-35.9%	—	—
SMA (90)	$11.23	—	—
Price vs SMA (90)	-66.4%	—	—
SMA (100)	—	—	—
Price vs SMA (100)	—	—	—
EMA (7)	$3.64	—	—
Price vs EMA (7)	+3.6%	—	—
EMA (14)	$3.94	—	—
Price vs EMA (14)	-4.4%	—	—
EMA (30)	$4.67	—	—
Price vs EMA (30)	-19.3%	—	—
RSI (7)	—	—	—
RSI (14)	—	—	—
RSI (21)	—	—	—
RSI (30)	—	—	—
RSI (50)	—	—	—
RSI (100)	—	—	—
Trend slope (14d)	-1.9%	—	—
Trend slope (30d)	-1.8%	55	59
Trend slope (60d)	-2.0%	—	—
Trend slope (90d)	-2.3%	—	—
Trend slope (all)	-2.3%	—	—
Trend fit R² (14d)	0.49×	—	—
Trend fit R² (30d)	0.83×	—	—
Trend fit R² (60d)	0.86×	—	—
Trend fit R² (90d)	0.85×	—	—
Trend fit R² (all)	0.85×	—	—
SMA 7/30 cross	-22.0%	43	47
Days since trend flip	20d	—	—

Volatility & risk

33/33 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return stdev (7d)	+6.5%	—	—
Return stdev (14d)	+12.5%	—	—
Return stdev (30d)	+8.8%	27	24
Return stdev (60d)	+10.3%	—	—
Return stdev (90d)	+11.0%	—	—
Return stdev (all)	+11.2%	—	—
Downside deviation (30d)	+5.2%	—	—
Downside deviation (60d)	+6.8%	—	—
Downside deviation (90d)	+7.2%	—	—
Max drawdown (30d)	+41.2%	—	—
Max drawdown (60d)	+70.4%	—	—
Max drawdown (90d)	+89.9%	65	62
Max drawdown (all)	+90.1%	—	—
Current drawdown (90d)	+88.8%	68	67
Current drawdown (all)	+89.0%	—	—
Drawdown duration (90d)	89d	—	—
Drawdown duration (all)	90d	—	—
Sortino ratio (30d)	-0.17×	61	64
Sortino ratio (90d)	-0.26×	—	—
Return skew (30d)	1.9	—	—
Return skew (90d)	0.81	—	—
Excess kurtosis (30d)	8.74	—	—
Excess kurtosis (90d)	3.36	—	—
Largest up day (7d)	+10.9%	—	—
Largest up day (14d)	+35.1%	—	—
Largest up day (30d)	+35.1%	—	—
Largest up day (60d)	+38.9%	—	—
Largest up day (90d)	+38.9%	—	—
Largest down day (7d)	+9.4%	—	—
Largest down day (14d)	+22.1%	—	—
Largest down day (30d)	+22.1%	—	—
Largest down day (60d)	+30.2%	—	—
Largest down day (90d)	+30.2%	—	—

Liquidity

13/20 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Turnover %	+0.0%	35	28
On-market %	+0.6%	6	5
Days to clear listings	36d	70	75
Lifetime sales / day	17.55	—	—
Liquidity score	22	26	25
Listings on book	36	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Listings trend (7d)	-10.0%	—	—
Listings trend (14d)	-20.0%	—	—
Listings trend (30d)	-18.2%	14	11
Listings trend (60d)	+38.5%	—	—
Bid-ask spread %	+17.9%	—	—
Near-mid bid imbalance	0.25×	—	—
Bid-depth trend (7d)	—	—	—
Bid-floor migration (7d)	+6.5%	—	—

Supply & ownership

20/21 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Supply growth (7d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (14d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (30d)	-0.9%	5	5
Supply growth (60d)	-0.9%	—	—
Supply growth (90d)	+0.0%	—	—
Owner growth (7d)	-0.1%	—	—
Owner growth (14d)	-0.4%	—	—
Owner growth (30d)	+0.0%	25	14
Owner growth (60d)	+28.2%	—	—
Owner growth (90d)	+153.3%	—	—
Mint rate (7d)	0	—	—
Mint rate (30d)	-1.83	—	—
Supply doubling time	—	—	—
Copies per owner	8.23×	23	24
Top-1 holder share	+4.3%	59	59
Top-10 holder share	+11.4%	49	55
HHI (top-10)	25.32	—	—
Whale count (≥5)	10	—	—
Absorption (30d)	+0.9%	51	43
Absorption (60d)	+29.1%	—	—
Absorption (90d)	+153.3%	—	—

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Age	344d	—	—
Days since fixation	—	—	—
Days until leaving storen/s	—	—	—
Release-price multiple	1.89×	77	78
Store-price ratio	1.89×	—	—
Fair-value residual	+28.9%	59	60
Price per scarcity point	0.13×	—	—
Instant-sell discount	+16.4%	—	—
Bid-floor backing	$3.11	—	—
Accumulation score	51	—	—
Market-relative 7d return	+5.7%	58	62
Momentum pillar	50	60	58
Scarcity pillar	28	—	—
Liquidity pillar	32	—	—
Value pillar	61	—	—
Risk pillar	52	—	—
Overall rating	48	57	56
Data completeness	+91.4%	—	—

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Spike days (30d)	1	25	25
Spike days (60d)	3	—	—
Spike days (90d)	6	—	—
Dump days (30d)	1	25	5
Dump days (60d)	4	—	—
Dump days (90d)	8	—	—
Post-spike reversion (30d)	-7.8%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (60d)	-4.5%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (90d)	-6.5%	—	—
Listing shocks (30d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (60d)	2	—	—
Listing shocks (90d)	2	—	—
Net spike bias (30d)	0	—	—
Net spike bias (60d)	-1	—	—
Net spike bias (90d)	-2	—	—