Wizard Hatfull analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 258 values across 7 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 90%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply

Insight Engine v2

36/ 100

Momentum40

Scarcity21

Liquidity29

Value38

Risk51

Recomputed each sync: last updated Jul 9, 10:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Slightly bullish

Elevated supply

7,223 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.

Holders are holding !!

Only 0.6% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Illiquid

No sales in the last 24h; it may be hard to buy or sell at the quoted price.

Concentrated ownership

~9.1 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Delisted from store !!

No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.

High volatility

Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.

Deep drawdown

Down 77% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

Wizard Hat's most striking figure is its 300% premium over the modelled fair value, a gap that dwarfs everything else in the pack and puts the "above modelled fair value" bearish signal front and center. That premium sits alongside genuine scarcity: the item is delisted from the store with supply fixed at 7,223 units across just 797 owners, and only 45 are actively listed. But liquidity is thin, with zero units traded in the last 24 hours and only one executed sale, while the 7d price change of -10.3% shows real softness even as it still runs 3.4% ahead of the market median over the same window. The 22.7% bid/ask spread (best bid $9.08 versus an $11.40 ask) underscores how little support currently exists beneath the current asking price.

AI-generated from live market data · updated 6h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

107/113 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return (24h)	+0.0%	—	—
Return (3d)	+0.0%	—	—
Return (7d)	+26.9%	90	92
Return (14d)

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.

Trend

30/38 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
SMA (7)	$10.11	—	—
Price vs SMA (7)	+12.7%	—	—
SMA (14)	$10.69	—	—
Price vs SMA (14)	+6.6%	—	—
SMA (21)	$11.15	—	—
Price vs SMA (21)	+2.2%	—	—
SMA (30)	$11.50	—	—
Price vs SMA (30)	-0.9%	90	91
SMA (50)	$13.14	—	—
Price vs SMA (50)	-13.2%	—	—
SMA (90)	$22.65	—	—
Price vs SMA (90)	-49.7%	—	—
SMA (100)	—	—	—
Price vs SMA (100)	—	—	—
EMA (7)	$10.11	—	—
Price vs EMA (7)	+12.7%	—	—
EMA (14)	$10.69	—	—
Price vs EMA (14)	+6.6%	—	—
EMA (30)	$11.50	—	—
Price vs EMA (30)	-0.9%	—	—
RSI (7)	—	—	—
RSI (14)	—	—	—
RSI (21)	—	—	—
RSI (30)	—	—	—
RSI (50)	—	—	—
RSI (100)	—	—	—
Trend slope (14d)	-1.0%	—	—
Trend slope (30d)	-0.8%	81	76
Trend slope (60d)	-1.2%	—	—
Trend slope (90d)	-2.0%	—	—
Trend slope (all)	-2.0%	—	—
Trend fit R² (14d)	0.10×	—	—
Trend fit R² (30d)	0.44×	—	—
Trend fit R² (60d)	0.60×	—	—
Trend fit R² (90d)	0.77×	—	—
Trend fit R² (all)	0.80×	—	—
SMA 7/30 cross	-12.0%	76	69
Days since trend flip	1.0d	—	—

Volatility & risk

32/33 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return stdev (7d)	+6.9%	—	—
Return stdev (14d)	+12.3%	—	—
Return stdev (30d)	+8.4%	24	35
Return stdev (60d)	+10.7%	—	—
Return stdev (90d)	+12.1%	—	—
Return stdev (all)	+11.8%	—	—
Downside deviation (30d)	+7.4%	—	—
Downside deviation (60d)	+7.7%	—	—
Downside deviation (90d)	+8.2%	—	—
Max drawdown (30d)	+34.0%	—	—
Max drawdown (60d)	+64.8%	—	—
Max drawdown (90d)	+82.0%	34	34
Max drawdown (all)	+83.0%	—	—
Current drawdown (90d)	+77.2%	27	29
Current drawdown (all)	+78.5%	—	—
Drawdown duration (90d)	74d	—	—
Drawdown duration (all)	92d	—	—
Sortino ratio (30d)	-0.04×	80	75
Sortino ratio (90d)	-0.11×	—	—
Return skew (30d)	-0.39	—	—
Return skew (90d)	0.48	—	—
Excess kurtosis (30d)	3.97	—	—
Excess kurtosis (90d)	2.84	—	—
Largest up day (7d)	+18.6%	—	—
Largest up day (14d)	+18.9%	—	—
Largest up day (30d)	+18.9%	—	—
Largest up day (60d)	+45.5%	—	—
Largest up day (90d)	+45.5%	—	—
Largest down day (7d)	—	—	—
Largest down day (14d)	+24.5%	—	—
Largest down day (30d)	+24.5%	—	—
Largest down day (60d)	+26.7%	—	—
Largest down day (90d)	+35.9%	—	—

Liquidity

11/20 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Turnover %	+0.0%	5	5
On-market %	+0.6%	7	13
Days to clear listings	—	—	—
Lifetime sales / day	21.27	—	—
Liquidity score	22	26	25
Listings on book	45	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Listings trend (7d)	-2.2%	—	—
Listings trend (14d)	+2.3%	—	—
Listings trend (30d)	-33.8%	5	6
Listings trend (60d)	-19.6%	—	—
Bid-ask spread %	+35.6%	—	—
Near-mid bid imbalance	—	—	—
Bid-depth trend (7d)	—	—	—
Bid-floor migration (7d)	-26.2%	—	—

Supply & ownership

20/21 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Supply growth (7d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (14d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (30d)	-1.3%	5	5
Supply growth (60d)	-1.3%	—	—
Supply growth (90d)	+0.0%	—	—
Owner growth (7d)	-0.1%	—	—
Owner growth (14d)	-0.5%	—	—
Owner growth (30d)	-0.3%	18	24
Owner growth (60d)	+26.1%	—	—
Owner growth (90d)	+141.5%	—	—
Mint rate (7d)	0	—	—
Mint rate (30d)	-3.21	—	—
Supply doubling time	—	—	—
Copies per owner	9.06×	30	30
Top-1 holder share	+2.5%	41	36
Top-10 holder share	+11.2%	48	37
HHI (top-10)	16.88	—	—
Whale count (≥5)	10	—	—
Absorption (30d)	+1.0%	52	66
Absorption (60d)	+27.4%	—	—
Absorption (90d)	+141.5%	—	—

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Age	344d	—	—
Days since fixation	—	—	—
Days until leaving storen/s	—	—	—
Release-price multiple	2.28×	81	82
Store-price ratio	2.28×	—	—
Fair-value residual	+300.0%	95	95
Price per scarcity point	0.54×	—	—
Instant-sell discount	+30.0%	—	—
Bid-floor backing	$6.91	—	—
Accumulation score	22	—	—
Market-relative 7d return	+3.4%	55	56
Momentum pillar	40	31	35
Scarcity pillar	21	—	—
Liquidity pillar	29	—	—
Value pillar	38	—	—
Risk pillar	51	—	—
Overall rating	38	19	21
Data completeness	+89.8%	—	—

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Spike days (30d)	2	75	50
Spike days (60d)	5	—	—
Spike days (90d)	9	—	—
Dump days (30d)	2	50	50
Dump days (60d)	5	—	—
Dump days (90d)	10	—	—
Post-spike reversion (30d)	-12.2%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (60d)	-0.7%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (90d)	+0.2%	—	—
Listing shocks (30d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (60d)	1	—	—
Listing shocks (90d)	2	—	—
Net spike bias (30d)	0	—	—
Net spike bias (60d)	0	—	—
Net spike bias (90d)	-1	—	—