Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 80%.
Recomputed each sync: last updated Oct 8, 11:02 AM.
7,316 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.
Only 0.6% of supply listed: low sell pressure.
~9.2 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.
No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.
Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.
Down 43% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.
21pts behind the median skin this week, underperforming its peers.
Trading 281% over our supply/rarity model's estimate; richly priced versus comparable skins.
Supply is fixed; every new owner must buy on the market.
Order-book support has been building (accumulation score 71/100), with bid depth, value and floor all rising over the past week.
The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.
Signals are informational only: not financial advice.
The most striking figure here is valuation: at a $6.51 ask, Wizard Hat trades 274.1% above the model's fair value, and the order book backs up the concern, with a 31.9% bid/ask spread and the listing floating 43% above the best standing bid of $4.72. Liquidity sits in the 5th percentile (score 10/100) against 41 active listings and 7,316 units held by only 794 owners, so the quoted price rests on thin support. The bullish pieces are structural rather than immediate: supply is fixed after delisting, 30d supply growth is 5th percentile, and bids are accumulating at the $4.72 floor. With price flat over 24h and down 1.1% on the week, 21.4% behind the market median, patience for a mark closer to real bids looks defensible.
AI-generated from live market data · updated 20h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return (24h) | -0.5% | — | — |
| Return (3d) | -0.5% | — | — |
| Return (7d) | -24.5% | 13 | 18 |
| Return (14d) | +8.2% | — | — |
| Return (30d) | -37.7% | 25 | 25 |
| Return (60d) | -24.0% | — | — |
| Return (90d) | -43.3% | 44 | 48 |
| Return (all) | -87.6% | — | — |
| Log return (24h) | -0.5% | — | — |
| Log return (3d) | -0.5% | — | — |
| Log return (7d) | -28.1% | — | — |
| Log return (14d) | +7.9% | — | — |
| Log return (30d) | -47.3% | — | — |
| Log return (60d) | -27.5% | — | — |
| Log return (90d) | -56.8% | — | — |
| Log return (all) | -209.0% | — | — |
| High (24h) | $6.48 | — | — |
| High (3d) | $6.51 | — | — |
| High (7d) | $8.58 | — | — |
| High (14d) | $8.58 | — | — |
| High (30d) | $10.40 | — | — |
| High (60d) | $10.40 | — | — |
| High (90d) | $11.43 | — | — |
| High (all) | $52.91 | — | — |
| Low (24h) | $6.48 | — | — |
| Low (3d) | $6.48 | — | — |
| Low (7d) | $6.48 | — | — |
| Low (14d) | $5.99 | — | — |
| Low (30d) | $5.88 | — | — |
| Low (60d) | $5.88 | — | — |
| Low (90d) | $5.88 | — | — |
| Low (all) | $5.88 | — | — |
| Mean price (24h) | $6.48 | — | — |
| Mean price (3d) | $6.50 | — | — |
| Mean price (7d) | $6.93 | — | — |
| Mean price (14d) | $6.78 | — | — |
| Mean price (30d) | $7.63 | — | — |
| Mean price (60d) | $8.34 | — | — |
| Mean price (90d) | $8.88 | — | — |
| Mean price (all) | $16.91 | — | — |
| Median price (24h) | $6.48 | — | — |
| Median price (3d) | $6.51 | — | — |
| Median price (7d) | $6.63 | — | — |
| Median price (14d) | $6.75 | — | — |
| Median price (30d) | $7.67 | — | — |
| Median price (60d) | $8.65 | — | — |
| Median price (90d) | $9.11 | — | — |
| Median price (all) | $11.40 | — | — |
| Range % (24h) | — | — | — |
| Range % (3d) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Range % (7d) | +32.4% | — | — |
| Range % (14d) | +43.2% | — | — |
| Range % (30d) | +76.9% | — | — |
| Range % (60d) | +76.9% | — | — |
| Range % (90d) | +94.4% | — | — |
| Range % (all) | +799.7% | — | — |
| Position in range (24h) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (3d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (7d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (14d) | 19 | — | — |
| Position in range (30d) | 13 | — | — |
| Position in range (60d) | 13 | — | — |
| Position in range (90d) | 11 | 46 | 49 |
| Position in range (all) | 1 | — | — |
| Distance from high (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (3d) | -0.5% | — | — |
| Distance from high (7d) | -24.5% | — | — |
| Distance from high (14d) | -24.5% | — | — |
| Distance from high (30d) | -37.7% | — | — |
| Distance from high (60d) | -37.7% | — | — |
| Distance from high (90d) | -43.3% | 70 | 73 |
| Distance from high (all) | -87.8% | — | — |
| Distance from low (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (14d) | +8.2% | — | — |
| Distance from low (30d) | +10.2% | — | — |
| Distance from low (60d) | +10.2% | — | — |
| Distance from low (90d) | +10.2% | — | — |
| Distance from low (all) | +10.2% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (3d) | -0.3% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (7d) | -6.5% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (14d) | -4.5% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (30d) | -15.1% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (60d) | -22.3% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (90d) | -27.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (all) | -61.7% | — | — |
| Up days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (14d) | 3 | — | — |
| Up days (30d) | 5 | — | — |
| Up days (60d) | 13 | — | — |
| Up days (90d) | 20 | — | — |
| Up days (all) | 55 | — | — |
| Down days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (3d) | 1 | — | — |
| Down days (7d) | 3 | — | — |
| Down days (14d) | 4 | — | — |
| Down days (30d) | 13 | — | — |
| Down days (60d) | 24 | — | — |
| Down days (90d) | 38 | — | — |
| Down days (all) | 92 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (24h) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (14d) | 43 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (30d) | 28 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (60d) | 35 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (90d) | 34 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (all) | 37 | — | — |
| Up-day streak | 0.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (7) | — | — | — |
| RSI (14) | — | — | — |
| RSI (21) | — | — | — |
| RSI (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (50) | — | — | — |
| RSI (100) | — | — | — |
| Trend slope (14d) | +0.4% | — | — |
| Trend slope (30d) | -1.6% | 36 | 30 |
| Trend slope (60d) | -0.6% | — | — |
| Trend slope (90d) | -0.5% | — | — |
| Trend slope (all) | -1.2% | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (14d) | 0.02× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (30d) | 0.57× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (60d) | 0.46× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (90d) | 0.55× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (all) | 0.64× | — | — |
| SMA 7/30 cross | — | — | — |
| Days since trend flip | 2.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return stdev (7d) | +10.4% | — | — |
| Return stdev (14d) | +11.2% | — | — |
| Return stdev (30d) | +12.3% | 50 | 50 |
| Return stdev (60d) | +10.1% | — | — |
| Return stdev (90d) | +9.7% | — | — |
| Return stdev (all) | +10.8% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (30d) | +8.9% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (60d) | +8.0% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (90d) | +7.3% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (30d) | +43.5% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (60d) | +43.5% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (90d) | +48.6% | 16 | 10 |
| Max drawdown (all) | +88.9% | — | — |
| Current drawdown (90d) | +43.3% | 30 | 27 |
| Current drawdown (all) | +87.8% | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (90d) | 89d | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (all) | 182d | — | — |
| Sortino ratio (30d) | -0.13× | 33 | 29 |
| Sortino ratio (90d) | -0.03× | — | — |
| Return skew (30d) | 0.79 | — | — |
| Return skew (90d) | 0.85 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (30d) | 2.44 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (90d) | 3.74 | — | — |
| Largest up day (7d) | — | — | — |
| Largest up day (14d) | +23.5% | — | — |
| Largest up day (30d) | +34.0% | — | — |
| Largest up day (60d) | +34.0% | — | — |
| Largest up day (90d) | +34.0% | — | — |
| Largest down day (7d) | +21.3% | — | — |
| Largest down day (14d) | +21.3% | — | — |
| Largest down day (30d) | +24.2% | — | — |
| Largest down day (60d) | +24.2% | — | — |
| Largest down day (90d) | +24.2% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover % | — | — | — |
| On-market % | +0.6% | 6 | 7 |
| Days to clear listings | — | — | — |
| Lifetime sales / day | needs provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime sales | — | — |
| Liquidity score | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Listings on book | 42 | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Listings trend (7d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (14d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Bid-ask spread % | +26.0% | — | — |
| Near-mid bid imbalance | — | — | — |
| Bid-depth trend (7d) | — | — | — |
| Bid-floor migration (7d) | -20.5% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply growth (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (14d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (30d) | +0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Supply growth (60d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (90d) | +1.3% | — | — |
| Owner growth (7d) | +0.1% | — | — |
| Owner growth (14d) | +0.3% | — | — |
| Owner growth (30d) | -0.3% | 16 | 16 |
| Owner growth (60d) | -0.5% | — | — |
| Owner growth (90d) | -0.4% | — | — |
| Mint rate (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Mint rate (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Supply doubling time | — | — | — |
| Copies per owner | 9.21× | 32 | 32 |
| Top-1 holder share | +2.5% | 41 | 34 |
| Top-10 holder share | +11.5% | 46 | 36 |
| HHI (top-10) | 16.97 | — | — |
| Whale count (≥5) | 10 | — | — |
| Absorption (30d) | -0.3% | 34 | 35 |
| Absorption (60d) | -0.5% | — | — |
| Absorption (90d) | -1.7% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 433d | — | — |
| Days since fixation | — | — | — |
| Days until leaving storen/s | — | — | — |
| Release-price multiple | 1.30× | 73 | 73 |
| Store-price ratio | 1.30× | — | — |
| Fair-value residual | +280.8% | 92 | 90 |
| Price per scarcity point | 0.28× | — | — |
| Instant-sell discount | +23.0% | — | — |
| Bid-floor backing | $4.69 | — | — |
| Accumulation score | 71 | — | — |
| Market-relative 7d return | -21.0% | 13 | 18 |
| Momentum pillar | 51 | 47 | 46 |
| Scarcity pillar | 23 | — | — |
| Liquidity pillar | 14 | — | — |
| Value pillar | 36 | — | — |
| Risk pillar | 46 | — | — |
| Overall rating | 36 | 10 | 6 |
| Data completeness | +80.0% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta vs market (14d) | 0.74× | — | — |
| Beta vs market (30d) | 1.10× | 81 | 82 |
| Beta vs market (90d) | 0.22× | — | — |
| Market correlation (14d) | 0.23× | — | — |
| Market correlation (30d) | 0.35× | — | — |
| Market correlation (90d) | 0.13× | — | — |
| Return vs market (14d) | +8.5% | — | — |
| Return vs market (30d) | -22.7% | 25 | 25 |
| Return vs market (90d) | -29.5% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spike days (30d) | 3 | 95 | 95 |
| Spike days (60d) | 4 | — | — |
| Spike days (90d) | 5 | — | — |
| Dump days (30d) | 3 | 75 | 75 |
| Dump days (60d) | 4 | — | — |
| Dump days (90d) | 5 | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (30d) | -7.0% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (60d) | -5.2% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (90d) | -4.1% | — | — |
| Listing shocks (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Net spike bias (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (60d) | 0 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (90d) | 0 | — | — |
Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.