Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 78%.
Recomputed each sync: last updated Oct 8, 10:02 PM.
Down 12.5% in the last 6 hours: near-term weakness.
7,384 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.
Only 0.5% of supply listed: low sell pressure.
~9.9 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.
No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.
Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.
Trading 106% over our supply/rarity model's estimate; richly priced versus comparable skins.
Supply is fixed; every new owner must buy on the market.
The listed price sits 78% above the best standing bid of $2.43; you could not actually sell there right now.
The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.
Signals are informational only: not financial advice.
The headline number here is valuation: Wizard Beard is trading 101.5% above the model's fair value, and the order book does not support the asking price. The lowest ask of $3.49 sits 68% above the best standing bid of $2.57, with a 30.4% bid/ask spread and a cumulative bid floor of $2.43, which is the phantom-price pattern. Liquidity scores 11/100 (5th percentile) against 40 active listings, so the 7d gain of +6.6% rests on thin trade, and the 6h move of -12.5% reads more as fade risk than as momentum. The bullish offsets are structural rather than immediate: supply is fixed at 7384 units after delisting, and 748 owners are largely holding. Overall grade D, 31/100.
AI-generated from live market data · updated 1d ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Return (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Return (7d) | +0.0% | 75 | 75 |
| Return (14d) | -4.1% | — | — |
| Return (30d) | -15.4% | 57 | 60 |
| Return (60d) | -16.7% | — | — |
| Return (90d) | -34.9% | 55 | 60 |
| Return (all) | -85.1% | — | — |
| Log return (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Log return (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Log return (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Log return (14d) | -4.2% | — | — |
| Log return (30d) | -16.7% | — | — |
| Log return (60d) | -18.3% | — | — |
| Log return (90d) | -42.9% | — | — |
| Log return (all) | -190.7% | — | — |
| High (24h) | $3.49 | — | — |
| High (3d) | $3.49 | — | — |
| High (7d) | $3.49 | — | — |
| High (14d) | $3.72 | — | — |
| High (30d) | $4.13 | — | — |
| High (60d) | $4.19 | — | — |
| High (90d) | $5.38 | — | — |
| High (all) | $32.16 | — | — |
| Low (24h) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Low (3d) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Low (7d) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Low (14d) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Low (30d) | $2.94 | — | — |
| Low (60d) | $2.94 | — | — |
| Low (90d) | $2.94 | — | — |
| Low (all) | $2.94 | — | — |
| Mean price (24h) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Mean price (3d) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Mean price (7d) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Mean price (14d) | $3.56 | — | — |
| Mean price (30d) | $3.63 | — | — |
| Mean price (60d) | $3.75 | — | — |
| Mean price (90d) | $4.07 | — | — |
| Mean price (all) | $9.73 | — | — |
| Median price (24h) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Median price (3d) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Median price (7d) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Median price (14d) | $3.49 | — | — |
| Median price (30d) | $3.64 | — | — |
| Median price (60d) | $3.88 | — | — |
| Median price (90d) | $4.05 | — | — |
| Median price (all) | $5.91 | — | — |
| Range % (24h) | — | — | — |
| Range % (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Range % (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Range % (14d) | +6.6% | — | — |
| Range % (30d) | +40.3% | — | — |
| Range % (60d) | +42.5% | — | — |
| Range % (90d) | +83.0% | — | — |
| Range % (all) | +993.9% | — | — |
| Position in range (24h) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (3d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (7d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (14d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (30d) | 46 | — | — |
| Position in range (60d) | 44 | — | — |
| Position in range (90d) | 23 | 64 | 69 |
| Position in range (all) | 2 | — | — |
| Distance from high (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (14d) | -6.2% | — | — |
| Distance from high (30d) | -15.4% | — | — |
| Distance from high (60d) | -16.7% | — | — |
| Distance from high (90d) | -35.1% | 80 | 82 |
| Distance from high (all) | -89.1% | — | — |
| Distance from low (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (14d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (30d) | +18.7% | — | — |
| Distance from low (60d) | +18.7% | — | — |
| Distance from low (90d) | +18.7% | — | — |
| Distance from low (all) | +18.7% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (7d) | -0.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (14d) | -2.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (30d) | -3.8% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (60d) | -7.1% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (90d) | -14.3% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (all) | -64.1% | — | — |
| Up days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (14d) | 1 | — | — |
| Up days (30d) | 3 | — | — |
| Up days (60d) | 11 | — | — |
| Up days (90d) | 17 | — | — |
| Up days (all) | 44 | — | — |
| Down days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (14d) | 2 | — | — |
| Down days (30d) | 8 | — | — |
| Down days (60d) | 19 | — | — |
| Down days (90d) | 34 | — | — |
| Down days (all) | 97 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (24h) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (3d) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (7d) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (14d) | 33 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (30d) | 27 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (60d) | 37 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (90d) | 33 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (all) | 31 | — | — |
| Up-day streak | 0.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (7) | — | — | — |
| RSI (14) | — | — | — |
| RSI (21) | — | — | — |
| RSI (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (50) | — | — | — |
| RSI (100) | — | — | — |
| Trend slope (14d) | -0.8% | — | — |
| Trend slope (30d) | -0.6% | 55 | 57 |
| Trend slope (60d) | -0.2% | — | — |
| Trend slope (90d) | -0.5% | — | — |
| Trend slope (all) | -1.4% | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (14d) | 0.68× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (30d) | 0.13× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (60d) | 0.10× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (90d) | 0.60× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (all) | 0.72× | — | — |
| SMA 7/30 cross | — | — | — |
| Days since trend flip | 5.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return stdev (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Return stdev (14d) | +1.8% | — | — |
| Return stdev (30d) | +9.9% | 36 | 35 |
| Return stdev (60d) | +9.7% | — | — |
| Return stdev (90d) | +8.5% | — | — |
| Return stdev (all) | +9.0% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (30d) | +8.5% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (60d) | +8.1% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (90d) | +7.0% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (30d) | +28.7% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (60d) | +29.8% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (90d) | +45.4% | 12 | 7 |
| Max drawdown (all) | +90.9% | — | — |
| Current drawdown (90d) | +35.1% | 20 | 18 |
| Current drawdown (all) | +89.1% | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (90d) | 86d | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (all) | 178d | — | — |
| Sortino ratio (30d) | -0.04× | 46 | 47 |
| Sortino ratio (90d) | -0.03× | — | — |
| Return skew (30d) | 1.31 | — | — |
| Return skew (90d) | 1.04 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (30d) | 9.42 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (90d) | 7.24 | — | — |
| Largest up day (7d) | — | — | — |
| Largest up day (14d) | +2.2% | — | — |
| Largest up day (30d) | +34.0% | — | — |
| Largest up day (60d) | +34.0% | — | — |
| Largest up day (90d) | +34.0% | — | — |
| Largest down day (7d) | — | — | — |
| Largest down day (14d) | +3.3% | — | — |
| Largest down day (30d) | +26.3% | — | — |
| Largest down day (60d) | +26.3% | — | — |
| Largest down day (90d) | +26.3% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover % | — | — | — |
| On-market % | +0.5% | 5 | 5 |
| Days to clear listings | — | — | — |
| Lifetime sales / day | needs provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime sales | — | — |
| Liquidity score | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Listings on book | 40 | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Listings trend (7d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (14d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Bid-ask spread % | +35.8% | — | — |
| Near-mid bid imbalance | — | — | — |
| Bid-depth trend (7d) | — | — | — |
| Bid-floor migration (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply growth (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (14d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (30d) | +0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Supply growth (60d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (90d) | +0.6% | — | — |
| Owner growth (7d) | +0.3% | — | — |
| Owner growth (14d) | +0.4% | — | — |
| Owner growth (30d) | +0.3% | 28 | 30 |
| Owner growth (60d) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Owner growth (90d) | +0.4% | — | — |
| Mint rate (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Mint rate (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Supply doubling time | — | — | — |
| Copies per owner | 9.87× | 38 | 39 |
| Top-1 holder share | +8.3% | 87 | 83 |
| Top-10 holder share | +23.0% | 83 | 79 |
| HHI (top-10) | 139.02 | — | — |
| Whale count (≥5) | 10 | — | — |
| Absorption (30d) | +0.3% | 50 | 51 |
| Absorption (60d) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Absorption (90d) | -0.2% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 434d | — | — |
| Days since fixation | — | — | — |
| Days until leaving storen/s | — | — | — |
| Release-price multiple | 1.75× | 85 | 84 |
| Store-price ratio | 1.75× | — | — |
| Fair-value residual | +106.3% | 75 | 75 |
| Price per scarcity point | 0.15× | — | — |
| Instant-sell discount | +30.4% | — | — |
| Bid-floor backing | $2.42 | — | — |
| Accumulation score | 46 | — | — |
| Market-relative 7d return | +3.6% | 75 | 75 |
| Momentum pillar | 51 | 48 | 46 |
| Scarcity pillar | 24 | — | — |
| Liquidity pillar | 7 | — | — |
| Value pillar | 31 | — | — |
| Risk pillar | 28 | — | — |
| Overall rating | 30 | 5 | 5 |
| Data completeness | +78.5% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta vs market (14d) | -0.18× | — | — |
| Beta vs market (30d) | 0.66× | 66 | 66 |
| Beta vs market (90d) | 0.04× | — | — |
| Market correlation (14d) | -0.47× | — | — |
| Market correlation (30d) | 0.28× | — | — |
| Market correlation (90d) | 0.03× | — | — |
| Return vs market (14d) | -0.3% | — | — |
| Return vs market (30d) | +2.5% | 58 | 61 |
| Return vs market (90d) | -20.2% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spike days (30d) | 1 | 25 | 25 |
| Spike days (60d) | 3 | — | — |
| Spike days (90d) | 4 | — | — |
| Dump days (30d) | 1 | 25 | 25 |
| Dump days (60d) | 2 | — | — |
| Dump days (90d) | 3 | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (30d) | -3.5% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (60d) | -1.0% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (90d) | -0.8% | — | — |
| Listing shocks (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Net spike bias (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (60d) | 1 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (90d) | 1 | — | — |
Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.