Wizard Beardfull analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 258 values across 7 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 91%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply

Insight Engine v2

40/ 100

Momentum51

Scarcity26

Liquidity29

Value40

Risk49

Recomputed each sync: last updated Jul 9, 10:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Neutral

Elevated supply

7,340 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.

Holders are holding !!

Only 0.5% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Concentrated ownership

~9.9 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Delisted from store !!

No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.

High volatility

Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.

Deep drawdown

Down 83% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.

Above modelled fair value !!

Trading 119% over our supply/rarity model's estimate; richly priced versus comparable skins.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

Wizard Beard's most striking figure is the 119.1% premium over the modelled fair value, even after a 7-day slide of 14.8% that has it trading 5.2% behind the broader market. That combination reads as fade-risk rather than a bounce: the drop hasn't been enough to close the valuation gap, and with only 37 units listed, 1 traded in the last 24h, and a 26.8% bid-ask spread (best bid $4.10 against a $5.37 ask), there's little liquidity to test where the price actually settles. Fixed supply and store delisting support a bullish long-term scarcity case, but concentrated ownership among just 745 holders for 7,340 units, plus a liquidity score of 29/100, mean any near-term move is likely to be thin and volatile rather than a clean signal.

AI-generated from live market data · updated 6h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

108/113 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return (24h)	-0.2%	—	—
Return (3d)	-0.6%	—	—
Return (7d)	-2.2%	58	58
Return (14d)

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.

Trend

30/38 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
SMA (7)	$5.45	—	—
Price vs SMA (7)	-1.4%	—	—
SMA (14)	$5.92	—	—
Price vs SMA (14)	-9.3%	—	—
SMA (21)	$6.65	—	—
Price vs SMA (21)	-19.3%	—	—
SMA (30)	$6.77	—	—
Price vs SMA (30)	-20.6%	54	47
SMA (50)	$8.24	—	—
Price vs SMA (50)	-34.8%	—	—
SMA (90)	$13.84	—	—
Price vs SMA (90)	-61.2%	—	—
SMA (100)	—	—	—
Price vs SMA (100)	—	—	—
EMA (7)	$5.45	—	—
Price vs EMA (7)	-1.4%	—	—
EMA (14)	$5.92	—	—
Price vs EMA (14)	-9.3%	—	—
EMA (30)	$6.77	—	—
Price vs EMA (30)	-20.6%	—	—
RSI (7)	—	—	—
RSI (14)	—	—	—
RSI (21)	—	—	—
RSI (30)	—	—	—
RSI (50)	—	—	—
RSI (100)	—	—	—
Trend slope (14d)	-2.2%	—	—
Trend slope (30d)	-1.2%	73	64
Trend slope (60d)	-1.4%	—	—
Trend slope (90d)	-2.0%	—	—
Trend slope (all)	-1.9%	—	—
Trend fit R² (14d)	0.82×	—	—
Trend fit R² (30d)	0.35×	—	—
Trend fit R² (60d)	0.86×	—	—
Trend fit R² (90d)	0.82×	—	—
Trend fit R² (all)	0.84×	—	—
SMA 7/30 cross	-19.5%	51	46
Days since trend flip	16d	—	—

Volatility & risk

33/33 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return stdev (7d)	+1.1%	—	—
Return stdev (14d)	+5.0%	—	—
Return stdev (30d)	+8.6%	25	37
Return stdev (60d)	+7.3%	—	—
Return stdev (90d)	+9.1%	—	—
Return stdev (all)	+9.3%	—	—
Downside deviation (30d)	+5.3%	—	—
Downside deviation (60d)	+4.8%	—	—
Downside deviation (90d)	+6.4%	—	—
Max drawdown (30d)	+41.0%	—	—
Max drawdown (60d)	+55.3%	—	—
Max drawdown (90d)	+83.3%	38	40
Max drawdown (all)	+83.3%	—	—
Current drawdown (90d)	+83.3%	45	50
Current drawdown (all)	+83.3%	—	—
Drawdown duration (90d)	88d	—	—
Drawdown duration (all)	88d	—	—
Sortino ratio (30d)	-0.27×	44	41
Sortino ratio (90d)	-0.24×	—	—
Return skew (30d)	1	—	—
Return skew (90d)	0.09	—	—
Excess kurtosis (30d)	4.23	—	—
Excess kurtosis (90d)	5.02	—	—
Largest up day (7d)	+0.9%	—	—
Largest up day (14d)	+9.2%	—	—
Largest up day (30d)	+23.8%	—	—
Largest up day (60d)	+23.8%	—	—
Largest up day (90d)	+30.4%	—	—
Largest down day (7d)	+2.4%	—	—
Largest down day (14d)	+10.7%	—	—
Largest down day (30d)	+23.6%	—	—
Largest down day (60d)	+23.6%	—	—
Largest down day (90d)	+36.2%	—	—

Liquidity

12/20 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Turnover %	+0.0%	33	45
On-market %	+0.5%	5	5
Days to clear listings	37d	71	57
Lifetime sales / day	21.47	—	—
Liquidity score	22	25	25
Listings on book	37	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Listings trend (7d)	-14.0%	—	—
Listings trend (14d)	-14.0%	—	—
Listings trend (30d)	-28.8%	5	9
Listings trend (60d)	-5.1%	—	—
Bid-ask spread %	+26.8%	—	—
Near-mid bid imbalance	—	—	—
Bid-depth trend (7d)	—	—	—
Bid-floor migration (7d)	-14.7%	—	—

Supply & ownership

20/21 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Supply growth (7d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (14d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (30d)	-0.6%	6	6
Supply growth (60d)	-0.6%	—	—
Supply growth (90d)	+0.0%	—	—
Owner growth (7d)	-0.5%	—	—
Owner growth (14d)	-0.9%	—	—
Owner growth (30d)	+0.3%	30	47
Owner growth (60d)	+26.1%	—	—
Owner growth (90d)	+141.9%	—	—
Mint rate (7d)	0	—	—
Mint rate (30d)	-1.52	—	—
Supply doubling time	—	—	—
Copies per owner	9.85×	37	37
Top-1 holder share	+8.4%	84	82
Top-10 holder share	+22.9%	87	85
HHI (top-10)	140.25	—	—
Whale count (≥5)	10	—	—
Absorption (30d)	+0.9%	51	63
Absorption (60d)	+26.7%	—	—
Absorption (90d)	+141.9%	—	—

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Age	344d	—	—
Days since fixation	—	—	—
Days until leaving storen/s	—	—	—
Release-price multiple	2.70×	84	87
Store-price ratio	2.70×	—	—
Fair-value residual	+119.1%	76	65
Price per scarcity point	0.21×	—	—
Instant-sell discount	+23.6%	—	—
Bid-floor backing	$4.06	—	—
Accumulation score	32	—	—
Market-relative 7d return	-5.2%	40	45
Momentum pillar	51	65	65
Scarcity pillar	26	—	—
Liquidity pillar	29	—	—
Value pillar	40	—	—
Risk pillar	49	—	—
Overall rating	40	23	26
Data completeness	+91.0%	—	—

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Spike days (30d)	2	75	50
Spike days (60d)	2	—	—
Spike days (90d)	4	—	—
Dump days (30d)	1	25	25
Dump days (60d)	1	—	—
Dump days (90d)	4	—	—
Post-spike reversion (30d)	+11.3%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (60d)	+11.3%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (90d)	+2.9%	—	—
Listing shocks (30d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (60d)	1	—	—
Listing shocks (90d)	1	—	—
Net spike bias (30d)	1	—	—
Net spike bias (60d)	1	—	—
Net spike bias (90d)	0	—	—