Valentines Bear Trousers 2025full analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 258 values across 7 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 91%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply

Insight Engine v2

46/ 100

Momentum59

Scarcity44

Liquidity25

Value44

Risk48

Recomputed each sync: last updated Jul 9, 10:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Bullish

Elevated supply

2,154 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.

Holders are holding !!

Only 1.3% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Concentrated ownership

~5.0 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Delisted from store !!

No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.

Oversold (RSI) !!

RSI 22: beaten down and due for a potential bounce.

High volatility

Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.

Deep drawdown

Down 88% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

The most striking figure here is the 86.9 percent premium to the fair-value model, a gap that persists even after a 7-day price decline of 8.3 percent and an oversold RSI reading. Supply is fixed at 2,154 units following the item's delisting from the store, but liquidity remains thin: only 27 units are listed, with 11 traded and just 1 executed sale in the last 24 hours, and the 22.1 percent bid/ask spread (best bid $10.55 against a $13.17 ask) reflects that. Ownership is concentrated among 434 holders, sitting in the 5th percentile for copies per owner, which supports the "holders are holding" read but also means thin order books can move sharply on small trades. With a C grade (50/100) and momentum at 59/100, the current ask looks stretched relative to the model despite the fixed-supply backdrop.

AI-generated from live market data · updated 6h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

108/113 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return (24h)	+0.0%	—	—
Return (3d)	-0.6%	—	—
Return (7d)	-4.6%	54	55
Return (14d)

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.

Trend

30/38 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
SMA (7)	$13.43	—	—
Price vs SMA (7)	-2.0%	—	—
SMA (14)	$14.04	—	—
Price vs SMA (14)	-6.2%	—	—
SMA (21)	$15.72	—	—
Price vs SMA (21)	-16.2%	—	—
SMA (30)	$17.48	—	—
Price vs SMA (30)	-24.6%	44	47
SMA (50)	$24.71	—	—
Price vs SMA (50)	-46.7%	—	—
SMA (90)	$45.72	—	—
Price vs SMA (90)	-71.2%	—	—
SMA (100)	—	—	—
Price vs SMA (100)	—	—	—
EMA (7)	$13.43	—	—
Price vs EMA (7)	-2.0%	—	—
EMA (14)	$14.04	—	—
Price vs EMA (14)	-6.2%	—	—
EMA (30)	$17.48	—	—
Price vs EMA (30)	-24.6%	—	—
RSI (7)	—	—	—
RSI (14)	—	—	—
RSI (21)	—	—	—
RSI (30)	—	—	—
RSI (50)	—	—	—
RSI (100)	—	—	—
Trend slope (14d)	-1.2%	—	—
Trend slope (30d)	-2.0%	49	50
Trend slope (60d)	-2.7%	—	—
Trend slope (90d)	-2.2%	—	—
Trend slope (all)	-2.1%	—	—
Trend fit R² (14d)	0.95×	—	—
Trend fit R² (30d)	0.58×	—	—
Trend fit R² (60d)	0.83×	—	—
Trend fit R² (90d)	0.90×	—	—
Trend fit R² (all)	0.91×	—	—
SMA 7/30 cross	-23.1%	40	43
Days since trend flip	20d	—	—

Volatility & risk

32/33 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return stdev (7d)	+0.4%	—	—
Return stdev (14d)	+1.0%	—	—
Return stdev (30d)	+10.5%	44	39
Return stdev (60d)	+9.8%	—	—
Return stdev (90d)	+11.0%	—	—
Return stdev (all)	+10.9%	—	—
Downside deviation (30d)	+5.5%	—	—
Downside deviation (60d)	+6.0%	—	—
Downside deviation (90d)	+7.0%	—	—
Max drawdown (30d)	+45.8%	—	—
Max drawdown (60d)	+77.3%	—	—
Max drawdown (90d)	+87.8%	54	50
Max drawdown (all)	+87.8%	—	—
Current drawdown (90d)	+87.8%	63	61
Current drawdown (all)	+87.8%	—	—
Drawdown duration (90d)	88d	—	—
Drawdown duration (all)	88d	—	—
Sortino ratio (30d)	-0.12×	70	73
Sortino ratio (90d)	-0.24×	—	—
Return skew (30d)	3.7	—	—
Return skew (90d)	1.66	—	—
Excess kurtosis (30d)	18.86	—	—
Excess kurtosis (90d)	9.25	—	—
Largest up day (7d)	—	—	—
Largest up day (14d)	+0.5%	—	—
Largest up day (30d)	+56.5%	—	—
Largest up day (60d)	+56.5%	—	—
Largest up day (90d)	+56.5%	—	—
Largest down day (7d)	+1.2%	—	—
Largest down day (14d)	+3.7%	—	—
Largest down day (30d)	+19.4%	—	—
Largest down day (60d)	+20.8%	—	—
Largest down day (90d)	+36.0%	—	—

Liquidity

13/20 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Turnover %	+0.5%	87	85
On-market %	+1.3%	34	29
Days to clear listings	2.5d	6	6
Lifetime sales / day	4.24	—	—
Liquidity score	26	58	55
Listings on book	27	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Listings trend (7d)	+12.5%	—	—
Listings trend (14d)	+3.8%	—	—
Listings trend (30d)	+0.0%	37	31
Listings trend (60d)	+8.0%	—	—
Bid-ask spread %	+19.2%	—	—
Near-mid bid imbalance	0.33×	—	—
Bid-depth trend (7d)	—	—	—
Bid-floor migration (7d)	+30.1%	—	—

Supply & ownership

20/21 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Supply growth (7d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (14d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (30d)	-0.9%	5	5
Supply growth (60d)	-0.9%	—	—
Supply growth (90d)	+0.0%	—	—
Owner growth (7d)	+0.0%	—	—
Owner growth (14d)	+0.7%	—	—
Owner growth (30d)	+0.7%	38	25
Owner growth (60d)	+24.4%	—	—
Owner growth (90d)	+130.9%	—	—
Mint rate (7d)	0	—	—
Mint rate (30d)	-0.66	—	—
Supply doubling time	—	—	—
Copies per owner	4.96×	5	5
Top-1 holder share	+9.3%	87	89
Top-10 holder share	+16.5%	68	70
HHI (top-10)	96.11	—	—
Whale count (≥5)	10	—	—
Absorption (30d)	+1.6%	55	50
Absorption (60d)	+25.2%	—	—
Absorption (90d)	+130.9%	—	—

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Age	513d	—	—
Days since fixation	—	—	—
Days until leaving storen/s	—	—	—
Release-price multiple	5.29×	91	95
Store-price ratio	5.29×	—	—
Fair-value residual	+86.9%	70	75
Price per scarcity point	0.30×	—	—
Instant-sell discount	+17.5%	—	—
Bid-floor backing	$10.55	—	—
Accumulation score	63	—	—
Market-relative 7d return	+2.4%	54	54
Momentum pillar	59	85	90
Scarcity pillar	44	—	—
Liquidity pillar	25	—	—
Value pillar	44	—	—
Risk pillar	48	—	—
Overall rating	50	63	61
Data completeness	+91.0%	—	—

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Spike days (30d)	1	25	25
Spike days (60d)	4	—	—
Spike days (90d)	6	—	—
Dump days (30d)	2	50	50
Dump days (60d)	5	—	—
Dump days (90d)	9	—	—
Post-spike reversion (30d)	-0.1%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (60d)	+4.4%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (90d)	+6.1%	—	—
Listing shocks (30d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (60d)	1	—	—
Listing shocks (90d)	2	—	—
Net spike bias (30d)	-1	—	—
Net spike bias (60d)	-1	—	—
Net spike bias (90d)	-3	—	—