Valentines Bear Top 2025full analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 258 values across 7 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 91%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply

Insight Engine v2

37/ 100

Momentum39

Scarcity44

Liquidity15

Value39

Risk40

Recomputed each sync: last updated Jul 9, 10:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Bullish

Elevated supply

2,259 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.

Holders are holding !!

Only 1.1% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Illiquid

No sales in the last 24h; it may be hard to buy or sell at the quoted price.

Concentrated ownership

~4.9 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Delisted from store !!

No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.

Asking above recent sales !!

Buyers actually paid a median of $11.50 across 6 recent sales — the current ask is 37% above what trades are really printing at.

High volatility

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

This item's 7d return sits at the 95th percentile of the market, up 8.1% over the week and outperforming the median by 69.5%, but that strength runs against a market-wide fear signal and a book so thin that the read deserves caution. Liquidity is the constraint: only 24 units are listed, zero traded in the last 24h, and just 6 sales executed, against a 52.9% bid/ask spread with the best bid at $9.14 versus a $15.71 ask. The ask also sits 132.5% above the model's fair value, and the "asking above recent sales" flag lines up with a median sale of $11.50. With fixed supply, delisted status, and concentrated ownership (457 holders across 2259 units) also in play, the recent pop looks more like a thin-book gap than a durable base of demand.

AI-generated from live market data · updated 6h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

108/113 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return (24h)	+0.0%	—	—
Return (3d)	+38.9%	—	—
Return (7d)	+62.3%	95	95
Return (14d)

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.

Trend

30/38 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
SMA (7)	$11.79	—	—
Price vs SMA (7)	+33.3%	—	—
SMA (14)	$11.34	—	—
Price vs SMA (14)	+38.5%	—	—
SMA (21)	$12.76	—	—
Price vs SMA (21)	+23.1%	—	—
SMA (30)	$13.44	—	—
Price vs SMA (30)	+16.9%	95	95
SMA (50)	$21.59	—	—
Price vs SMA (50)	-27.2%	—	—
SMA (90)	$38.53	—	—
Price vs SMA (90)	-59.2%	—	—
SMA (100)	—	—	—
Price vs SMA (100)	—	—	—
EMA (7)	$11.79	—	—
Price vs EMA (7)	+33.3%	—	—
EMA (14)	$11.34	—	—
Price vs EMA (14)	+38.5%	—	—
EMA (30)	$13.44	—	—
Price vs EMA (30)	+16.9%	—	—
RSI (7)	—	—	—
RSI (14)	—	—	—
RSI (21)	—	—	—
RSI (30)	—	—	—
RSI (50)	—	—	—
RSI (100)	—	—	—
Trend slope (14d)	+1.2%	—	—
Trend slope (30d)	-1.4%	68	73
Trend slope (60d)	-2.7%	—	—
Trend slope (90d)	-2.3%	—	—
Trend slope (all)	-2.2%	—	—
Trend fit R² (14d)	0.16×	—	—
Trend fit R² (30d)	0.44×	—	—
Trend fit R² (60d)	0.83×	—	—
Trend fit R² (90d)	0.87×	—	—
Trend fit R² (all)	0.88×	—	—
SMA 7/30 cross	-12.3%	75	79
Days since trend flip	4.0d	—	—

Volatility & risk

33/33 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return stdev (7d)	+13.2%	—	—
Return stdev (14d)	+10.6%	—	—
Return stdev (30d)	+12.5%	54	52
Return stdev (60d)	+11.5%	—	—
Return stdev (90d)	+12.6%	—	—
Return stdev (all)	+12.7%	—	—
Downside deviation (30d)	+8.5%	—	—
Downside deviation (60d)	+7.0%	—	—
Downside deviation (90d)	+7.1%	—	—
Max drawdown (30d)	+47.5%	—	—
Max drawdown (60d)	+80.0%	—	—
Max drawdown (90d)	+90.5%	69	65
Max drawdown (all)	+90.5%	—	—
Current drawdown (90d)	+84.6%	49	47
Current drawdown (all)	+84.6%	—	—
Drawdown duration (90d)	89d	—	—
Drawdown duration (all)	89d	—	—
Sortino ratio (30d)	0.02×	85	86
Sortino ratio (90d)	-0.18×	—	—
Return skew (30d)	0.53	—	—
Return skew (90d)	1.99	—	—
Excess kurtosis (30d)	2.89	—	—
Excess kurtosis (90d)	9.47	—	—
Largest up day (7d)	+36.4%	—	—
Largest up day (14d)	+36.4%	—	—
Largest up day (30d)	+36.4%	—	—
Largest up day (60d)	+36.4%	—	—
Largest up day (90d)	+70.4%	—	—
Largest down day (7d)	+1.3%	—	—
Largest down day (14d)	+11.7%	—	—
Largest down day (30d)	+28.1%	—	—
Largest down day (60d)	+28.1%	—	—
Largest down day (90d)	+35.5%	—	—

Liquidity

11/20 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Turnover %	+0.0%	5	5
On-market %	+1.1%	29	26
Days to clear listings	—	—	—
Lifetime sales / day	4.44	—	—
Liquidity score	15	7	5
Listings on book	25	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Listings trend (7d)	-25.0%	—	—
Listings trend (14d)	-29.4%	—	—
Listings trend (30d)	-25.0%	8	5
Listings trend (60d)	-31.4%	—	—
Bid-ask spread %	+47.2%	—	—
Near-mid bid imbalance	—	—	—
Bid-depth trend (7d)	—	—	—
Bid-floor migration (7d)	+32.3%	—	—

Supply & ownership

20/21 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Supply growth (7d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (14d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (30d)	-0.7%	5	5
Supply growth (60d)	-0.7%	—	—
Supply growth (90d)	+0.0%	—	—
Owner growth (7d)	+0.2%	—	—
Owner growth (14d)	+1.1%	—	—
Owner growth (30d)	+1.1%	45	33
Owner growth (60d)	+20.9%	—	—
Owner growth (90d)	+116.6%	—	—
Mint rate (7d)	0	—	—
Mint rate (30d)	-0.59	—	—
Supply doubling time	—	—	—
Copies per owner	4.94×	5	5
Top-1 holder share	+8.9%	86	87
Top-10 holder share	+17.8%	73	74
HHI (top-10)	93.46	—	—
Whale count (≥5)	10	—	—
Absorption (30d)	+1.9%	56	51
Absorption (60d)	+21.6%	—	—
Absorption (90d)	+116.6%	—	—

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Age	513d	—	—
Days since fixation	—	—	—
Days until leaving storen/s	—	—	—
Release-price multiple	4.50×	91	93
Store-price ratio	4.50×	—	—
Fair-value residual	+132.5%	77	86
Price per scarcity point	0.36×	—	—
Instant-sell discount	+38.3%	—	—
Bid-floor backing	$9.14	—	—
Accumulation score	91	—	—
Market-relative 7d return	+69.5%	95	95
Momentum pillar	39	28	25
Scarcity pillar	44	—	—
Liquidity pillar	15	—	—
Value pillar	39	—	—
Risk pillar	40	—	—
Overall rating	42	28	25
Data completeness	+90.6%	—	—

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Spike days (30d)	4	95	95
Spike days (60d)	8	—	—
Spike days (90d)	11	—	—
Dump days (30d)	2	50	50
Dump days (60d)	5	—	—
Dump days (90d)	7	—	—
Post-spike reversion (30d)	-1.5%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (60d)	-0.5%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (90d)	-2.2%	—	—
Listing shocks (30d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (60d)	1	—	—
Listing shocks (90d)	2	—	—
Net spike bias (30d)	2	—	—
Net spike bias (60d)	3	—	—
Net spike bias (90d)	4	—	—