Police Hatfull analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 258 values across 7 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 91%.

Overall rating

?Store · permanent

Insight Engine v2

26/ 100

Momentum39

Scarcity43

Liquidity10

Value27

Risk24

Recomputed each sync: last updated Jul 9, 10:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Slightly bullish

Holders are holding !!

Only 1.5% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Illiquid

No sales in the last 24h; it may be hard to buy or sell at the quoted price.

Concentrated ownership

~6.0 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Item drop !!

A random in-game drop (16 dropped). It was never sold in the store, so supply is capped by the drop rate.

High volatility

Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.

Deep drawdown

Down 56% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.

Outperforming the market !!

Up 27pts more than the median skin this week: real relative strength.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

Police Hat is showing the classic phantom-price setup: the $2.61 ask sits 108% above the best standing bid of $1.24, and the order book's cumulative bid floor of $0.99 points to a much weaker real market than the listed price suggests, a gap reflected in the 71.2% bid/ask spread. The 7d gain of 4.6% and the +26.7% outperformance versus the market median look strong on paper, but with only 28 units listed, 0 traded in the last 24h, and just 1 executed sale, there is little volume behind the move. The model flags the item as trading 300% above modelled fair value, and liquidity and value scores of 10 and 27 out of 100 underline how thin this market currently is.

AI-generated from live market data · updated 6h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

108/113 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return (24h)	-2.6%	—	—
Return (3d)	-3.0%	—	—
Return (7d)	+19.2%	83	89
Return (14d)

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.

Trend

30/38 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
SMA (7)	$2.58	—	—
Price vs SMA (7)	+1.2%	—	—
SMA (14)	$2.52	—	—
Price vs SMA (14)	+3.5%	—	—
SMA (21)	$2.51	—	—
Price vs SMA (21)	+3.8%	—	—
SMA (30)	$2.13	—	—
Price vs SMA (30)	+22.8%	95	95
SMA (50)	$2.11	—	—
Price vs SMA (50)	+23.9%	—	—
SMA (90)	$3.17	—	—
Price vs SMA (90)	-17.8%	—	—
SMA (100)	—	—	—
Price vs SMA (100)	—	—	—
EMA (7)	$2.58	—	—
Price vs EMA (7)	+1.2%	—	—
EMA (14)	$2.52	—	—
Price vs EMA (14)	+3.5%	—	—
EMA (30)	$2.13	—	—
Price vs EMA (30)	+22.8%	—	—
RSI (7)	—	—	—
RSI (14)	—	—	—
RSI (21)	—	—	—
RSI (30)	—	—	—
RSI (50)	—	—	—
RSI (100)	—	—	—
Trend slope (14d)	+0.4%	—	—
Trend slope (30d)	+2.7%	95	95
Trend slope (60d)	-0.9%	—	—
Trend slope (90d)	-1.3%	—	—
Trend slope (all)	-1.3%	—	—
Trend fit R² (14d)	0.05×	—	—
Trend fit R² (30d)	0.62×	—	—
Trend fit R² (60d)	0.18×	—	—
Trend fit R² (90d)	0.67×	—	—
Trend fit R² (all)	0.70×	—	—
SMA 7/30 cross	+21.4%	95	95
Days since trend flip	4.0d	—	—

Volatility & risk

33/33 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return stdev (7d)	+7.3%	—	—
Return stdev (14d)	+7.3%	—	—
Return stdev (30d)	+11.4%	51	55
Return stdev (60d)	+9.8%	—	—
Return stdev (90d)	+8.8%	—	—
Return stdev (all)	+8.7%	—	—
Downside deviation (30d)	+7.2%	—	—
Downside deviation (60d)	+7.0%	—	—
Downside deviation (90d)	+6.0%	—	—
Max drawdown (30d)	+21.9%	—	—
Max drawdown (60d)	+73.3%	—	—
Max drawdown (90d)	+81.8%	33	33
Max drawdown (all)	+82.1%	—	—
Current drawdown (90d)	+55.6%	11	15
Current drawdown (all)	+56.2%	—	—
Drawdown duration (90d)	89d	—	—
Drawdown duration (all)	90d	—	—
Sortino ratio (30d)	0.41×	95	95
Sortino ratio (90d)	-0.09×	—	—
Return skew (30d)	1.86	—	—
Return skew (90d)	1.85	—	—
Excess kurtosis (30d)	4.43	—	—
Excess kurtosis (90d)	8.62	—	—
Largest up day (7d)	+18.7%	—	—
Largest up day (14d)	+18.7%	—	—
Largest up day (30d)	+43.2%	—	—
Largest up day (60d)	+43.2%	—	—
Largest up day (90d)	+43.2%	—	—
Largest down day (7d)	+3.0%	—	—
Largest down day (14d)	+15.4%	—	—
Largest down day (30d)	+18.9%	—	—
Largest down day (60d)	+22.0%	—	—
Largest down day (90d)	+22.0%	—	—

Liquidity

11/20 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Turnover %	+0.0%	5	5
On-market %	+1.5%	41	44
Days to clear listings	—	—	—
Lifetime sales / day	3.48	—	—
Liquidity score	15	6	7
Listings on book	28	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Listings trend (7d)	+16.7%	—	—
Listings trend (14d)	+7.7%	—	—
Listings trend (30d)	-25.3%	7	10
Listings trend (60d)	-5.1%	—	—
Bid-ask spread %	+90.0%	—	—
Near-mid bid imbalance	—	—	—
Bid-depth trend (7d)	—	—	—
Bid-floor migration (7d)	-1.0%	—	—

Supply & ownership

21/21 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Supply growth (7d)	+0.4%	—	—
Supply growth (14d)	+1.0%	—	—
Supply growth (30d)	+1.7%	51	75
Supply growth (60d)	+4.3%	—	—
Supply growth (90d)	+42.0%	—	—
Owner growth (7d)n/s	-0.3%	—	—
Owner growth (14d)n/s	-0.3%	—	—
Owner growth (30d)n/s	+0.0%	25	35
Owner growth (60d)n/s	+16.0%	—	—
Owner growth (90d)n/s	+102.6%	—	—
Mint rate (7d)	1.33	—	—
Mint rate (30d)	1.1	—	—
Supply doubling time	1214d	—	—
Copies per ownern/s	6.04×	9	7
Top-1 holder sharen/s	+1.6%	29	22
Top-10 holder sharen/s	+8.3%	36	27
HHI (top-10)n/s	8.67	—	—
Whale count (≥5)n/s	10	—	—
Absorption (30d)n/s	-1.7%	13	11
Absorption (60d)n/s	+11.7%	—	—
Absorption (90d)n/s	+60.6%	—	—

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Age	539d	—	—
Days since fixationn/s	—	—	—
Days until leaving storen/s	—	—	—
Release-price multiple	0.58×	37	37
Store-price ratio	0.58×	—	—
Fair-value residual	+300.0%	95	95
Price per scarcity point	0.06×	—	—
Instant-sell discount	+62.1%	—	—
Bid-floor backing	$0.97	—	—
Accumulation score	49	—	—
Market-relative 7d return	+26.7%	83	89
Momentum pillar	39	28	32
Scarcity pillar	43	—	—
Liquidity pillar	10	—	—
Value pillar	27	—	—
Risk pillar	24	—	—
Overall rating	29	6	5
Data completeness	+90.9%	—	—

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Spike days (30d)	4	95	95
Spike days (60d)	4	—	—
Spike days (90d)	5	—	—
Dump days (30d)	2	50	50
Dump days (60d)	5	—	—
Dump days (90d)	5	—	—
Post-spike reversion (30d)	+10.4%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (60d)	+10.4%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (90d)	+5.5%	—	—
Listing shocks (30d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (60d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (90d)	0	—	—
Net spike bias (30d)	2	—	—
Net spike bias (60d)	-1	—	—
Net spike bias (90d)	0	—	—