Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 83%.
Recomputed each sync: last updated Nov 10, 4:02 AM.
401 total supply: a relatively rare item.
Only 0.7% of supply listed: low sell pressure.
~26.7 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.
No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.
Average price up 44% over the past week versus the prior week.
Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.
Trading 300% over our supply/rarity model's estimate; richly priced versus comparable skins.
Supply is fixed; every new owner must buy on the market.
The median sale price sits 62% above the best standing bid of $79.48; you could not actually sell there right now.
Signals are informational only: not financial advice.
The $277.10 ask sits 300% above the model's fair value, and it is the number that frames everything else here. The 7d move of +62.5% puts the item in the 95th percentile for position in its 90d range, but in this single-regime market sharp spikes have tended to fade, so that gain reads as fade-risk rather than continuation. The order book explains why: a 111.3% bid/ask spread, a best standing bid of $79.01, a cumulative bid floor of $25.58, and a median sale of $128.84 that sits 63% above the best bid. Supply is genuinely fixed at 401 units across 14 lifetime store buyers, which supports the scarcity score of 74, but liquidity at 5 and value at 1 anchor the D grade (38/100). With the displayed price floating this far above real bids, waiting for the spread to compress is worth weighing.
AI-generated from live market data · updated 12h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return (24h) | +0.6% | — | — |
| Return (3d) | +0.6% | — | — |
| Return (7d) | +0.1% | 75 | 75 |
| Return (14d) | +117.5% | — | — |
| Return (30d) | +13.7% | 20 | 22 |
| Return (60d) | +108.9% | — | — |
| Return (90d) | +72.3% | 68 | 75 |
| Return (all) | +134.2% | — | — |
| Log return (24h) | +0.6% | — | — |
| Log return (3d) | +0.6% | — | — |
| Log return (7d) | +0.1% | — | — |
| Log return (14d) | +77.7% | — | — |
| Log return (30d) | +12.8% | — | — |
| Log return (60d) | +73.7% | — | — |
| Log return (90d) | +54.4% | — | — |
| Log return (all) | +85.1% | — | — |
| High (24h) | $278.72 | — | — |
| High (3d) | $278.72 | — | — |
| High (7d) | $280.27 | — | — |
| High (14d) | $280.27 | — | — |
| High (30d) | $280.27 | — | — |
| High (60d) | $280.27 | — | — |
| High (90d) | $280.27 | — | — |
| High (all) | $437.31 | — | — |
| Low (24h) | $278.72 | — | — |
| Low (3d) | $277.10 | — | — |
| Low (7d) | $277.10 | — | — |
| Low (14d) | $127.83 | — | — |
| Low (30d) | $127.83 | — | — |
| Low (60d) | $127.83 | — | — |
| Low (90d) | $127.83 | — | — |
| Low (all) | $119.02 | — | — |
| Mean price (24h) | $278.72 | — | — |
| Mean price (3d) | $277.64 | — | — |
| Mean price (7d) | $278.27 | — | — |
| Mean price (14d) | $235.54 | — | — |
| Mean price (30d) | $241.06 | — | — |
| Mean price (60d) | $225.84 | — | — |
| Mean price (90d) | $202.07 | — | — |
| Mean price (all) | $202.64 | — | — |
| Median price (24h) | $278.72 | — | — |
| Median price (3d) | $277.10 | — | — |
| Median price (7d) | $278.47 | — | — |
| Median price (14d) | $277.79 | — | — |
| Median price (30d) | $277.68 | — | — |
| Median price (60d) | $250.73 | — | — |
| Median price (90d) | $161.41 | — | — |
| Median price (all) | $169.80 | — | — |
| Range % (24h) | — | — | — |
| Range % (3d) | +0.6% | — | — |
| Range % (7d) | +1.1% | — | — |
| Range % (14d) | +119.3% | — | — |
| Range % (30d) | +119.3% | — | — |
| Range % (60d) | +119.3% | — | — |
| Range % (90d) | +119.3% | — | — |
| Range % (all) | +267.4% | — | — |
| Position in range (24h) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (3d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (7d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (14d) | 99 | — | — |
| Position in range (30d) | 99 | — | — |
| Position in range (60d) | 99 | — | — |
| Position in range (90d) | 99 | 95 | 95 |
| Position in range (all) | 50 | — | — |
| Distance from high (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (7d) | -0.6% | — | — |
| Distance from high (14d) | -0.6% | — | — |
| Distance from high (30d) | -0.6% | — | — |
| Distance from high (60d) | -0.6% | — | — |
| Distance from high (90d) | -0.6% | 95 | 95 |
| Distance from high (all) | -36.3% | — | — |
| Distance from low (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (3d) | +0.6% | — | — |
| Distance from low (7d) | +0.6% | — | — |
| Distance from low (14d) | +118.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (30d) | +118.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (60d) | +118.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (90d) | +118.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (all) | +134.2% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (3d) | +0.4% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (7d) | +0.2% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (14d) | +18.3% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (30d) | +15.6% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (60d) | +23.4% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (90d) | +37.9% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (all) | +37.5% | — | — |
| Up days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (3d) | 1 | — | — |
| Up days (7d) | 2 | — | — |
| Up days (14d) | 5 | — | — |
| Up days (30d) | 10 | — | — |
| Up days (60d) | 14 | — | — |
| Up days (90d) | 16 | — | — |
| Up days (all) | 29 | — | — |
| Down days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (7d) | 2 | — | — |
| Down days (14d) | 5 | — | — |
| Down days (30d) | 12 | — | — |
| Down days (60d) | 26 | — | — |
| Down days (90d) | 44 | — | — |
| Down days (all) | 69 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (24h) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (3d) | 100 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (7d) | 50 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (14d) | 50 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (30d) | 45 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (60d) | 35 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (90d) | 27 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (all) | 30 | — | — |
| Up-day streak | 1.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMA (7) | $278.27 | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (7) | +0.2% | — | — |
| SMA (14) | $235.54 | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (14) | +18.3% | — | — |
| SMA (21) | $228.36 | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (21) | +22.1% | — | — |
| SMA (30) | $241.06 | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (30) | +15.6% | 79 | 86 |
| SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| EMA (7) | $278.27 | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (7) | +0.2% | — | — |
| EMA (14) | $235.54 | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (14) | +18.3% | — | — |
| EMA (30) | $241.06 | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (30) | +15.6% | — | — |
| RSI (7) | — | — | — |
| RSI (14) | — | — | — |
| RSI (21) | — | — | — |
| RSI (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (50) | — | — | — |
| RSI (100) | — | — | — |
| Trend slope (14d) | +5.6% | — | — |
| Trend slope (30d) | -0.1% | 34 | 41 |
| Trend slope (60d) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Trend slope (90d) | +0.8% | — | — |
| Trend slope (all) | +0.2% | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (14d) | 0.61× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (30d) | 0.00× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (60d) | 0.08× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (90d) | 0.34× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (all) | 0.03× | — | — |
| SMA 7/30 cross | +15.4% | 80 | 90 |
| Days since trend flip | 3.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return stdev (7d) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Return stdev (14d) | +21.5% | — | — |
| Return stdev (30d) | +20.8% | 67 | 68 |
| Return stdev (60d) | +18.9% | — | — |
| Return stdev (90d) | +15.6% | — | — |
| Return stdev (all) | +22.0% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (30d) | +15.4% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (60d) | +11.6% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (90d) | +9.0% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (30d) | +54.1% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (60d) | +54.1% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (90d) | +54.1% | 42 | 40 |
| Max drawdown (all) | +70.8% | — | — |
| Current drawdown (90d) | +0.6% | 5 | 5 |
| Current drawdown (all) | +36.3% | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (90d) | 5.0d | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (all) | 127d | — | — |
| Sortino ratio (30d) | 0.17× | 18 | 20 |
| Sortino ratio (90d) | 0.22× | — | — |
| Return skew (30d) | 3.53 | — | — |
| Return skew (90d) | 3.9 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (30d) | 19.66 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (90d) | 23.38 | — | — |
| Largest up day (7d) | +0.6% | — | — |
| Largest up day (14d) | +117.4% | — | — |
| Largest up day (30d) | +117.4% | — | — |
| Largest up day (60d) | +117.4% | — | — |
| Largest up day (90d) | +117.4% | — | — |
| Largest down day (7d) | +0.7% | — | — |
| Largest down day (14d) | +0.7% | — | — |
| Largest down day (30d) | +53.6% | — | — |
| Largest down day (60d) | +53.6% | — | — |
| Largest down day (90d) | +53.6% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover % | — | — | — |
| On-market % | +0.7% | 30 | 31 |
| Days to clear listings | — | — | — |
| Lifetime sales / day | needs provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime sales | — | — |
| Liquidity score | 7 | 34 | 34 |
| Listings on book | 3 | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Listings trend (7d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (14d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Bid-ask spread % | +111.2% | — | — |
| Near-mid bid imbalance | — | — | — |
| Bid-depth trend (7d) | — | — | — |
| Bid-floor migration (7d) | +4.3% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply growth (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (14d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (30d) | +0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Supply growth (60d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (90d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Owner growth (7d) | — | — | — |
| Owner growth (14d) | — | — | — |
| Owner growth (30d) | — | — | — |
| Owner growth (60d) | — | — | — |
| Owner growth (90d) | — | — | — |
| Mint rate (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Mint rate (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Supply doubling time | — | — | — |
| Copies per owner | 26.73× | 95 | 95 |
| Top-1 holder share | +12.7% | 95 | 93 |
| Top-10 holder share | +29.2% | 94 | 90 |
| HHI (top-10) | 315.86 | — | — |
| Whale count (≥5) | 3 | — | — |
| Absorption (30d) | — | — | — |
| Absorption (60d) | — | — | — |
| Absorption (90d) | — | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 140d | — | — |
| Days since fixation | — | — | — |
| Days until leaving storen/s | — | — | — |
| Release-price multiple | 140.06× | 95 | 95 |
| Store-price ratio | 140.06× | — | — |
| Fair-value residual | +300.0% | 95 | 95 |
| Price per scarcity point | 3.77× | — | — |
| Instant-sell discount | +71.5% | — | — |
| Bid-floor backing | $25.72 | — | — |
| Accumulation score | 52 | — | — |
| Market-relative 7d return | +1.9% | 75 | 75 |
| Momentum pillar | 56 | 60 | 63 |
| Scarcity pillar | 74 | — | — |
| Liquidity pillar | 5 | — | — |
| Value pillar | 0 | — | — |
| Risk pillar | 25 | — | — |
| Overall rating | 40 | 35 | 32 |
| Data completeness | +83.0% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta vs market (14d) | -2.70× | — | — |
| Beta vs market (30d) | -0.17× | 9 | 5 |
| Beta vs market (90d) | -0.15× | — | — |
| Market correlation (14d) | -0.31× | — | — |
| Market correlation (30d) | -0.05× | — | — |
| Market correlation (90d) | -0.05× | — | — |
| Return vs market (14d) | +118.7% | — | — |
| Return vs market (30d) | -122.9% | 15 | 16 |
| Return vs market (90d) | -80.3% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spike days (30d) | 1 | 10 | 10 |
| Spike days (60d) | 4 | — | — |
| Spike days (90d) | 4 | — | — |
| Dump days (30d) | 1 | 50 | 50 |
| Dump days (60d) | 3 | — | — |
| Dump days (90d) | 3 | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (30d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (60d) | -0.1% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (90d) | -0.1% | — | — |
| Listing shocks (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Net spike bias (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (60d) | 1 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (90d) | 1 | — | — |
Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.