Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 77%.
Recomputed each sync: last updated Oct 8, 9:02 AM.
Down 12.4% in the last 6 hours: near-term weakness.
6,589 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.
Scarcity score 19/100: abundant and liquid.
Only 1.9% of supply listed: low sell pressure.
~8.7 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.
No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.
Trading within 5% of its lowest recorded price.
Average price down 22% over the past week versus the prior week.
RSI 27: beaten down and due for a potential bounce.
Down 74% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.
10pts behind the median skin this week, underperforming its peers.
Trading 45% under our supply/rarity model's estimate; looks cheap versus comparable skins.
Supply is fixed; every new owner must buy on the market.
The listed price sits 59% above the best standing bid of $0.98; you could not actually sell there right now.
Real buy support at $0.98: cumulative standing bids you could sell a few copies into without the price collapsing.
Order-book support has been building (accumulation score 69/100), with bid depth, value and floor all rising over the past week.
The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.
Signals are informational only: not financial advice.
Price has slid to $1.01, a 21.6% drop over seven days and 12.4% in the last six hours, which puts the raincoat in the 5th percentile of its 90-day range and 45.1% below the model's fair value against a $1.56 median and $3.00 original store price. The contrarian read matters here: in this single-regime market, drops this sharp have tended to recover, so the weakness reads as a possible setup rather than a trend to chase. Supply is fixed at 6,589 units after delisting, with 757 owners and 125 active listings, and a $0.98 bid floor sits 3.0% under the ask. Scarcity remains weak at 19/100 and liquidity at 40/100, so any recovery would likely be slow.
AI-generated from live market data · updated 18h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return (24h) | -1.9% | — | — |
| Return (3d) | -1.9% | — | — |
| Return (7d) | -12.9% | 25 | 25 |
| Return (14d) | -26.8% | — | — |
| Return (30d) | -34.0% | 29 | 29 |
| Return (60d) | -69.8% | — | — |
| Return (90d) | -52.1% | 32 | 29 |
| Return (all) | -86.6% | — | — |
| Log return (24h) | -2.0% | — | — |
| Log return (3d) | -2.0% | — | — |
| Log return (7d) | -13.8% | — | — |
| Log return (14d) | -31.2% | — | — |
| Log return (30d) | -41.5% | — | — |
| Log return (60d) | -119.6% | — | — |
| Log return (90d) | -73.7% | — | — |
| Log return (all) | -200.6% | — | — |
| High (24h) | — | — | — |
| High (3d) | $1.03 | — | — |
| High (7d) | $1.16 | — | — |
| High (14d) | $1.38 | — | — |
| High (30d) | $1.53 | — | — |
| High (60d) | $3.36 | — | — |
| High (90d) | $3.96 | — | — |
| High (all) | $11.94 | — | — |
| Low (24h) | — | — | — |
| Low (3d) | $1.01 | — | — |
| Low (7d) | $1.01 | — | — |
| Low (14d) | $1.01 | — | — |
| Low (30d) | $1.01 | — | — |
| Low (60d) | $1.01 | — | — |
| Low (90d) | $1.01 | — | — |
| Low (all) | $1.01 | — | — |
| Mean price (24h) | — | — | — |
| Mean price (3d) | $1.02 | — | — |
| Mean price (7d) | $1.08 | — | — |
| Mean price (14d) | $1.17 | — | — |
| Mean price (30d) | $1.31 | — | — |
| Mean price (60d) | $1.78 | — | — |
| Mean price (90d) | $2.17 | — | — |
| Mean price (all) | $3.65 | — | — |
| Median price (24h) | — | — | — |
| Median price (3d) | $1.02 | — | — |
| Median price (7d) | $1.08 | — | — |
| Median price (14d) | $1.12 | — | — |
| Median price (30d) | $1.30 | — | — |
| Median price (60d) | $1.53 | — | — |
| Median price (90d) | $2.05 | — | — |
| Median price (all) | $3.21 | — | — |
| Range % (24h) | — | — | — |
| Range % (3d) | +2.0% | — | — |
| Range % (7d) | +14.9% | — | — |
| Range % (14d) | +36.6% | — | — |
| Range % (30d) | +51.5% | — | — |
| Range % (60d) | +232.7% | — | — |
| Range % (90d) | +292.1% | — | — |
| Range % (all) | +1081.9% | — | — |
| Position in range (24h) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (3d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (7d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (14d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Position in range (60d) | 0 | — | — |
| Position in range (90d) | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| Position in range (all) | 0 | — | — |
| Distance from high (24h) | — | — | — |
| Distance from high (3d) | -1.9% | — | — |
| Distance from high (7d) | -12.9% | — | — |
| Distance from high (14d) | -26.8% | — | — |
| Distance from high (30d) | -34.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (60d) | -69.9% | — | — |
| Distance from high (90d) | -74.5% | 25 | 29 |
| Distance from high (all) | -91.5% | — | — |
| Distance from low (24h) | — | — | — |
| Distance from low (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (14d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (30d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (60d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (90d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (all) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (24h) | — | — | — |
| Price vs mean (3d) | -1.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (7d) | -6.5% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (14d) | -13.8% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (30d) | -22.7% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (60d) | -43.2% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (90d) | -53.5% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (all) | -72.4% | — | — |
| Up days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (14d) | 1 | — | — |
| Up days (30d) | 4 | — | — |
| Up days (60d) | 9 | — | — |
| Up days (90d) | 14 | — | — |
| Up days (all) | 52 | — | — |
| Down days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (3d) | 1 | — | — |
| Down days (7d) | 3 | — | — |
| Down days (14d) | 5 | — | — |
| Down days (30d) | 11 | — | — |
| Down days (60d) | 28 | — | — |
| Down days (90d) | 42 | — | — |
| Down days (all) | 95 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (24h) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (14d) | 17 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (30d) | 27 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (60d) | 24 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (90d) | 25 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (all) | 35 | — | — |
| Up-day streak | 0.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (7) | — | — | — |
| RSI (14) | — | — | — |
| RSI (21) | — | — | — |
| RSI (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (50) | — | — | — |
| RSI (100) | — | — | — |
| Trend slope (14d) | -3.8% | — | — |
| Trend slope (30d) | -1.4% | 39 | 39 |
| Trend slope (60d) | -2.4% | — | — |
| Trend slope (90d) | -1.4% | — | — |
| Trend slope (all) | -1.1% | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (14d) | 0.84× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (30d) | 0.54× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (60d) | 0.76× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (90d) | 0.65× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (all) | 0.70× | — | — |
| SMA 7/30 cross | — | — | — |
| Days since trend flip | 9.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return stdev (7d) | +3.3% | — | — |
| Return stdev (14d) | +5.4% | — | — |
| Return stdev (30d) | +5.4% | 10 | 12 |
| Return stdev (60d) | +8.0% | — | — |
| Return stdev (90d) | +13.4% | — | — |
| Return stdev (all) | +12.3% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (30d) | +4.1% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (60d) | +6.5% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (90d) | +7.3% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (30d) | +34.0% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (60d) | +69.9% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (90d) | +74.5% | 65 | 59 |
| Max drawdown (all) | +91.5% | — | — |
| Current drawdown (90d) | +74.5% | 74 | 71 |
| Current drawdown (all) | +91.5% | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (90d) | 83d | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (all) | 176d | — | — |
| Sortino ratio (30d) | -0.45× | 8 | 11 |
| Sortino ratio (90d) | -0.00× | — | — |
| Return skew (30d) | -0.1 | — | — |
| Return skew (90d) | 3.8 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (30d) | 0.13 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (90d) | 21.35 | — | — |
| Largest up day (7d) | — | — | — |
| Largest up day (14d) | +3.6% | — | — |
| Largest up day (30d) | +8.3% | — | — |
| Largest up day (60d) | +18.6% | — | — |
| Largest up day (90d) | +99.0% | — | — |
| Largest down day (7d) | +8.0% | — | — |
| Largest down day (14d) | +11.6% | — | — |
| Largest down day (30d) | +11.6% | — | — |
| Largest down day (60d) | +23.5% | — | — |
| Largest down day (90d) | +28.2% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover % | — | — | — |
| On-market % | +1.9% | 58 | 54 |
| Days to clear listings | — | — | — |
| Lifetime sales / day | needs provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime sales | — | — |
| Liquidity score | 17 | 58 | 54 |
| Listings on book | 125 | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Listings trend (7d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (14d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Bid-ask spread % | +1.0% | — | — |
| Near-mid bid imbalance | 0.97× | — | — |
| Bid-depth trend (7d) | +138.5% | — | — |
| Bid-floor migration (7d) | -3.0% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply growth (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (14d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (30d) | +0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Supply growth (60d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (90d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Owner growth (7d) | +0.3% | — | — |
| Owner growth (14d) | +0.3% | — | — |
| Owner growth (30d) | +0.1% | 26 | 25 |
| Owner growth (60d) | -1.0% | — | — |
| Owner growth (90d) | -1.4% | — | — |
| Mint rate (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Mint rate (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Supply doubling time | — | — | — |
| Copies per owner | 8.70× | 27 | 25 |
| Top-1 holder share | +3.1% | 50 | 58 |
| Top-10 holder share | +15.7% | 61 | 68 |
| HHI (top-10) | 31.6 | — | — |
| Whale count (≥5) | 10 | — | — |
| Absorption (30d) | +0.1% | 46 | 46 |
| Absorption (60d) | -1.0% | — | — |
| Absorption (90d) | -1.4% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 221d | — | — |
| Days since fixation | — | — | — |
| Days until leaving storen/s | — | — | — |
| Release-price multiple | 0.34× | 31 | 29 |
| Store-price ratio | 0.34× | — | — |
| Fair-value residual | -45.0% | 28 | 25 |
| Price per scarcity point | 0.05× | — | — |
| Instant-sell discount | +3.0% | — | — |
| Bid-floor backing | $0.98 | — | — |
| Accumulation score | 69 | — | — |
| Market-relative 7d return | -10.4% | 25 | 25 |
| Momentum pillar | 54 | 54 | 57 |
| Scarcity pillar | 19 | — | — |
| Liquidity pillar | 41 | — | — |
| Value pillar | 84 | — | — |
| Risk pillar | 56 | — | — |
| Overall rating | 54 | 78 | 79 |
| Data completeness | +77.4% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta vs market (14d) | 0.26× | — | — |
| Beta vs market (30d) | -0.03× | 32 | 37 |
| Beta vs market (90d) | -0.53× | — | — |
| Market correlation (14d) | 0.24× | — | — |
| Market correlation (30d) | -0.03× | — | — |
| Market correlation (90d) | -0.20× | — | — |
| Return vs market (14d) | -26.5% | — | — |
| Return vs market (30d) | -19.0% | 29 | 30 |
| Return vs market (90d) | -39.9% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spike days (30d) | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| Spike days (60d) | 1 | — | — |
| Spike days (90d) | 4 | — | — |
| Dump days (30d) | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| Dump days (60d) | 2 | — | — |
| Dump days (90d) | 4 | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (30d) | — | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (60d) | -8.3% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (90d) | -5.5% | — | — |
| Listing shocks (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Net spike bias (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (60d) | -1 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (90d) | 0 | — | — |
Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.