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Back to Lucky Bastard Helmet

Lucky Bastard Helmetfull analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 75%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply
Insight Engine v2
41/ 100
C
Momentum43
Scarcity15
Liquidity24
Value61
Risk59

Recomputed each sync: last updated Oct 8, 8:02 AM.

Signal narrative

Slightly bullish
6-hour dip !!

Down 13.4% in the last 6 hours: near-term weakness.

High supply !!

10,667 total supply: a common item, minimal scarcity premium.

Low scarcity score

Scarcity score 15/100: abundant and liquid.

Holders are holding !!

Only 0.9% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Concentrated ownership

~11.4 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Delisted from store !!

No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.

Below modelled fair value !!

Trading 40% under our supply/rarity model's estimate; looks cheap versus comparable skins.

Fixed supply

Supply is fixed; every new owner must buy on the market.

Market-wide fear

The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.

Signals are informational only: not financial advice.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

The headline number is valuation: at $0.85 the helmet trades 40.3% below the model's fair value, with a median sale of $0.77 and an original store price of $7.50. Supply is fixed after delisting, but it is not scarce, 10,667 units against 938 unique owners, which drives the scarcity score to 15 and liquidity to 20, and 93 active listings sit above a best bid of $0.69 on a wide 20.8% spread. The 7d print is +6.9% while the last six hours gave back 13.4%, so the near-term tape is softening rather than building. Drawdowns have been shallow by market standards (5th percentile over 90d), and the overall grade remains a C at 42/100.

AI-generated from live market data Β· updated 17h ago Β· Not financial advice β€” automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

96/113 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Return (24h)-1.2%β€”β€”
Return (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Return (7d)+6.2%
83
87
Return (14d)+9.0%β€”β€”
Return (30d)-8.6%
66
70
Return (60d)-3.4%β€”β€”
Return (90d)-7.6%
78
82
Return (all)-94.0%β€”β€”
Log return (24h)-1.2%β€”β€”
Log return (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Log return (7d)+6.1%β€”β€”
Log return (14d)+8.6%β€”β€”
Log return (30d)-9.0%β€”β€”
Log return (60d)-3.5%β€”β€”
Log return (90d)-7.9%β€”β€”
Log return (all)-281.9%β€”β€”
High (24h)β€”β€”β€”
High (3d)$0.85β€”β€”
High (7d)$0.86β€”β€”
High (14d)$0.89β€”β€”
High (30d)$0.93β€”β€”
High (60d)$0.93β€”β€”
High (90d)$1.00β€”β€”
High (all)$14.25β€”β€”
Low (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Low (3d)$0.85β€”β€”
Low (7d)$0.80β€”β€”
Low (14d)$0.78β€”β€”
Low (30d)$0.73β€”β€”
Low (60d)$0.72β€”β€”
Low (90d)$0.69β€”β€”
Low (all)$0.69β€”β€”
Mean price (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Mean price (3d)$0.85β€”β€”
Mean price (7d)$0.84β€”β€”
Mean price (14d)$0.83β€”β€”
Mean price (30d)$0.81β€”β€”
Mean price (60d)$0.82β€”β€”
Mean price (90d)$0.86β€”β€”
Mean price (all)$2.94β€”β€”
Median price (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Median price (3d)$0.85β€”β€”
Median price (7d)$0.85β€”β€”
Median price (14d)$0.81β€”β€”
Median price (30d)$0.80β€”β€”
Median price (60d)$0.81β€”β€”
Median price (90d)$0.87β€”β€”
Median price (all)$1.71β€”β€”
Range % (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Range % (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Range % (7d)+7.5%β€”β€”
Range % (14d)+14.1%β€”β€”
Range % (30d)+27.4%β€”β€”
Range % (60d)+29.2%β€”β€”
Range % (90d)+44.9%β€”β€”
Range % (all)+1965.6%β€”β€”
Position in range (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (14d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (30d)60β€”β€”
Position in range (60d)62β€”β€”
Position in range (90d)52
87
90
Position in range (all)1β€”β€”
Distance from high (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Distance from high (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from high (7d)-1.2%β€”β€”
Distance from high (14d)-4.5%β€”β€”
Distance from high (30d)-8.6%β€”β€”
Distance from high (60d)-8.6%β€”β€”
Distance from high (90d)-15.0%
95
95
Distance from high (all)-94.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Distance from low (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (7d)+6.2%β€”β€”
Distance from low (14d)+9.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (30d)+16.4%β€”β€”
Distance from low (60d)+18.1%β€”β€”
Distance from low (90d)+23.2%β€”β€”
Distance from low (all)+23.2%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs mean (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (7d)+1.6%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (14d)+2.3%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (30d)+4.6%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (60d)+3.8%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (90d)-1.0%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (all)-71.1%β€”β€”
Up days (24h)0β€”β€”
Up days (3d)0β€”β€”
Up days (7d)1β€”β€”
Up days (14d)3β€”β€”
Up days (30d)9β€”β€”
Up days (60d)18β€”β€”
Up days (90d)26β€”β€”
Up days (all)56β€”β€”
Down days (24h)0β€”β€”
Down days (3d)0β€”β€”
Down days (7d)1β€”β€”
Down days (14d)3β€”β€”
Down days (30d)9β€”β€”
Down days (60d)19β€”β€”
Down days (90d)30β€”β€”
Down days (all)93β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (7d)50β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (14d)50β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (30d)50β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (60d)49β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (90d)46β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (all)38β€”β€”
Up-day streak0.0dβ€”β€”

Trend

11/38 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
SMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (21)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (21)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (50)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (50)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (90)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (90)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (100)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (100)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (7)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (14)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (21)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (30)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (50)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (100)β€”β€”β€”
Trend slope (14d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Trend slope (30d)-0.2%
66
72
Trend slope (60d)-0.1%β€”β€”
Trend slope (90d)-0.2%β€”β€”
Trend slope (all)-1.7%β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (14d)0.00Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (30d)0.03Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (60d)0.02Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (90d)0.30Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (all)0.71Γ—β€”β€”
SMA 7/30 crossβ€”β€”β€”
Days since trend flip4.0dβ€”β€”

Volatility & risk

32/33 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Return stdev (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Return stdev (14d)+6.9%β€”β€”
Return stdev (30d)+5.7%
12
11
Return stdev (60d)+5.6%β€”β€”
Return stdev (90d)+7.6%β€”β€”
Return stdev (all)+9.6%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (30d)+4.1%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (60d)+3.7%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (90d)+5.7%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (30d)+21.5%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (60d)+21.5%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (90d)+30.3%
5
5
Max drawdown (all)+95.2%β€”β€”
Current drawdown (90d)+15.0%
5
5
Current drawdown (all)+94.0%β€”β€”
Drawdown duration (90d)81dβ€”β€”
Drawdown duration (all)182dβ€”β€”
Sortino ratio (30d)-0.06Γ—
44
43
Sortino ratio (90d)0.03Γ—β€”β€”
Return skew (30d)0.29β€”β€”
Return skew (90d)1.02β€”β€”
Excess kurtosis (30d)1.16β€”β€”
Excess kurtosis (90d)10.27β€”β€”
Largest up day (7d)+7.5%β€”β€”
Largest up day (14d)+14.1%β€”β€”
Largest up day (30d)+14.1%β€”β€”
Largest up day (60d)+14.1%β€”β€”
Largest up day (90d)+38.4%β€”β€”
Largest down day (7d)+1.2%β€”β€”
Largest down day (14d)+10.1%β€”β€”
Largest down day (30d)+10.9%β€”β€”
Largest down day (60d)+11.5%β€”β€”
Largest down day (90d)+30.3%β€”β€”

Liquidity

7/20 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Turnover %β€”β€”β€”
On-market %+0.9%
21
21
Days to clear listingsβ€”β€”β€”
Lifetime sales / dayneeds provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime salesβ€”β€”
Liquidity score8
21
21
Listings on book92β€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (7d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (14d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Bid-ask spread %+15.8%β€”β€”
Near-mid bid imbalance0.99Γ—β€”β€”
Bid-depth trend (7d)-29.3%β€”β€”
Bid-floor migration (7d)-4.1%β€”β€”

Supply & ownership

20/21 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Supply growth (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Supply growth (14d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Supply growth (30d)+0.0%
5
5
Supply growth (60d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Supply growth (90d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Owner growth (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Owner growth (14d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Owner growth (30d)-0.4%
10
10
Owner growth (60d)-0.8%β€”β€”
Owner growth (90d)-1.0%β€”β€”
Mint rate (7d)0β€”β€”
Mint rate (30d)0β€”β€”
Supply doubling timeβ€”β€”β€”
Copies per owner11.38Γ—
54
56
Top-1 holder share+1.0%
11
5
Top-10 holder share+7.4%
28
21
HHI (top-10)5.88β€”β€”
Whale count (β‰₯5)10β€”β€”
Absorption (30d)-0.4%
27
27
Absorption (60d)-0.8%β€”β€”
Absorption (90d)-1.0%β€”β€”

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Age200dβ€”β€”
Days since fixationβ€”β€”β€”
Days until leaving storen/sβ€”β€”β€”
Release-price multiple0.11Γ—
6
8
Store-price ratio0.11Γ—β€”β€”
Fair-value residual-40.1%
30
33
Price per scarcity point0.06Γ—β€”β€”
Instant-sell discount+17.6%β€”β€”
Bid-floor backing$0.70β€”β€”
Accumulation score39β€”β€”
Market-relative 7d return+8.8%
83
87
Momentum pillar43
24
22
Scarcity pillar15β€”β€”
Liquidity pillar24β€”β€”
Value pillar61β€”β€”
Risk pillar59β€”β€”
Overall rating42
36
36
Data completeness+75.5%β€”β€”

Relative to market

9/9 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Beta vs market (14d)0.75Γ—β€”β€”
Beta vs market (30d)0.56Γ—
62
63
Beta vs market (90d)0.19Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (14d)0.34Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (30d)0.36Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (90d)0.14Γ—β€”β€”
Return vs market (14d)+9.3%β€”β€”
Return vs market (30d)+6.3%
66
72
Return vs market (90d)+8.2%β€”β€”

Events

10/15 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Spike days (30d)0
5
5
Spike days (60d)0β€”β€”
Spike days (90d)2β€”β€”
Dump days (30d)0
5
5
Dump days (60d)0β€”β€”
Dump days (90d)1β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (90d)-12.8%β€”β€”
Listing shocks (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listing shocks (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listing shocks (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Net spike bias (30d)0β€”β€”
Net spike bias (60d)0β€”β€”
Net spike bias (90d)1β€”β€”

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. β€œn/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.