Gumball Machinefull analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 258 values across 7 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 91%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply

Insight Engine v2

39/ 100

Momentum47

Scarcity18

Liquidity22

Value73

Risk31

Recomputed each sync: last updated Jul 9, 10:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Bullish

Strong upward momentum !!!

Price up 10.6% in 24h: significant bullish movement.

Elevated supply

7,387 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.

Low scarcity score

Scarcity score 18/100: abundant and liquid.

Holders are holding !!

Only 2.5% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Illiquid

No sales in the last 24h; it may be hard to buy or sell at the quoted price.

Concentrated ownership

~9.3 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Delisted from store !!

No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

Gumball Machine's 24h move of +10.6% sits on top of a sharp -29.1% six-hour dip, and with the market's single-regime pattern of spikes tending to fade, the recent 7d gain of +5.6% (outperforming the market median by +12.8%) reads more as volatility than a durable trend. The order book supports caution: the best standing bid is just $1.47 against a $2.41 listed ask, a 48.5% spread with the phantom-price signal flagging listings floating 48% above real bids. Liquidity is thin, with only 6 units traded in the last 24h against 185 active listings, and scarcity scores low at 18/100 despite the item being delisted with fixed supply. Against the fair-value model the ask still runs 10.6% cheap, but concentrated ownership (793 owners across 7387 units) adds another layer of risk to weigh.

AI-generated from live market data · updated 6h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

108/113 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return (24h)	+10.6%	—	—
Return (3d)	-29.1%	—	—
Return (7d)	+4.3%	67	75
Return (14d)

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.

Trend

30/38 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
SMA (7)	$2.68	—	—
Price vs SMA (7)	-10.0%	—	—
SMA (14)	$2.61	—	—
Price vs SMA (14)	-7.5%	—	—
SMA (21)	$2.75	—	—
Price vs SMA (21)	-12.3%	—	—
SMA (30)	$2.85	—	—
Price vs SMA (30)	-15.5%	69	70
SMA (50)	$3.56	—	—
Price vs SMA (50)	-32.3%	—	—
SMA (90)	$6.23	—	—
Price vs SMA (90)	-61.3%	—	—
SMA (100)	—	—	—
Price vs SMA (100)	—	—	—
EMA (7)	$2.68	—	—
Price vs EMA (7)	-10.0%	—	—
EMA (14)	$2.61	—	—
Price vs EMA (14)	-7.5%	—	—
EMA (30)	$2.85	—	—
Price vs EMA (30)	-15.5%	—	—
RSI (7)	—	—	—
RSI (14)	—	—	—
RSI (21)	—	—	—
RSI (30)	—	—	—
RSI (50)	—	—	—
RSI (100)	—	—	—
Trend slope (14d)	-0.2%	—	—
Trend slope (30d)	-1.0%	78	82
Trend slope (60d)	-1.6%	—	—
Trend slope (90d)	-2.2%	—	—
Trend slope (all)	-2.1%	—	—
Trend fit R² (14d)	0.00×	—	—
Trend fit R² (30d)	0.23×	—	—
Trend fit R² (60d)	0.79×	—	—
Trend fit R² (90d)	0.79×	—	—
Trend fit R² (all)	0.81×	—	—
SMA 7/30 cross	-6.1%	89	92
Days since trend flip	5.0d	—	—

Volatility & risk

33/33 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Return stdev (7d)	+26.4%	—	—
Return stdev (14d)	+19.6%	—	—
Return stdev (30d)	+14.6%	60	57
Return stdev (60d)	+11.1%	—	—
Return stdev (90d)	+11.1%	—	—
Return stdev (all)	+11.0%	—	—
Downside deviation (30d)	+9.9%	—	—
Downside deviation (60d)	+7.5%	—	—
Downside deviation (90d)	+7.9%	—	—
Max drawdown (30d)	+48.0%	—	—
Max drawdown (60d)	+67.3%	—	—
Max drawdown (90d)	+87.6%	53	49
Max drawdown (all)	+87.7%	—	—
Current drawdown (90d)	+85.6%	53	51
Current drawdown (all)	+85.7%	—	—
Drawdown duration (90d)	89d	—	—
Drawdown duration (all)	90d	—	—
Sortino ratio (30d)	-0.07×	77	79
Sortino ratio (90d)	-0.20×	—	—
Return skew (30d)	0.64	—	—
Return skew (90d)	0.49	—	—
Excess kurtosis (30d)	3.69	—	—
Excess kurtosis (90d)	5.17	—	—
Largest up day (7d)	+44.5%	—	—
Largest up day (14d)	+44.5%	—	—
Largest up day (30d)	+44.5%	—	—
Largest up day (60d)	+44.5%	—	—
Largest up day (90d)	+44.5%	—	—
Largest down day (7d)	+35.9%	—	—
Largest down day (14d)	+35.9%	—	—
Largest down day (30d)	+35.9%	—	—
Largest down day (60d)	+35.9%	—	—
Largest down day (90d)	+35.9%	—	—

Liquidity

12/20 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Turnover %	+0.0%	5	5
On-market %	+2.5%	62	54
Days to clear listings	—	—	—
Lifetime sales / day	56.01	—	—
Liquidity score	28	72	72
Listings on book	185	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Amihud illiquidity (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (30d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (60d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Zero-sale-day share (90d)	needs sales history (accruing from supply snapshots)	—	—
Listings trend (7d)	-5.6%	—	—
Listings trend (14d)	+5.1%	—	—
Listings trend (30d)	-28.0%	5	5
Listings trend (60d)	-2.1%	—	—
Bid-ask spread %	+48.5%	—	—
Near-mid bid imbalance	—	—	—
Bid-depth trend (7d)	-100.0%	—	—
Bid-floor migration (7d)	-21.2%	—	—

Supply & ownership

20/21 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Supply growth (7d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (14d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (30d)	+0.0%	25	25
Supply growth (60d)	+0.0%	—	—
Supply growth (90d)	+0.0%	—	—
Owner growth (7d)	-0.3%	—	—
Owner growth (14d)	-0.9%	—	—
Owner growth (30d)	-1.5%	5	5
Owner growth (60d)	+14.4%	—	—
Owner growth (90d)	+88.8%	—	—
Mint rate (7d)	0	—	—
Mint rate (30d)	0	—	—
Supply doubling time	—	—	—
Copies per owner	9.32×	32	33
Top-1 holder share	+10.3%	91	92
Top-10 holder share	+21.8%	84	84
HHI (top-10)	142.16	—	—
Whale count (≥5)	10	—	—
Absorption (30d)	-1.5%	16	19
Absorption (60d)	+14.4%	—	—
Absorption (90d)	+88.8%	—	—

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Age	132d	—	—
Days since fixation	—	—	—
Days until leaving storen/s	—	—	—
Release-price multiple	0.54×	34	31
Store-price ratio	0.54×	—	—
Fair-value residual	-10.6%	51	50
Price per scarcity point	0.13×	—	—
Instant-sell discount	+39.0%	—	—
Bid-floor backing	$1.45	—	—
Accumulation score	24	—	—
Market-relative 7d return	+12.8%	69	76
Momentum pillar	47	49	47
Scarcity pillar	18	—	—
Liquidity pillar	22	—	—
Value pillar	73	—	—
Risk pillar	31	—	—
Overall rating	42	28	25
Data completeness	+91.0%	—	—

Indicator	Value	vs market	vs cohort
Spike days (30d)	2	75	75
Spike days (60d)	3	—	—
Spike days (90d)	4	—	—
Dump days (30d)	2	50	50
Dump days (60d)	2	—	—
Dump days (90d)	5	—	—
Post-spike reversion (30d)	-8.4%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (60d)	-5.8%	—	—
Post-spike reversion (90d)	-5.2%	—	—
Listing shocks (30d)	0	—	—
Listing shocks (60d)	4	—	—
Listing shocks (90d)	5	—	—
Net spike bias (30d)	0	—	—
Net spike bias (60d)	1	—	—
Net spike bias (90d)	-1	—	—