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The dedicated S&box cosmetics market tracker. Live prices, drops and supply for every sbox skin on the Steam Community Market.

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Back to Frog Nappy

Frog Nappyfull analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 81%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply
Insight Engine v2
40/ 100
C
Momentum54
Scarcity59
Liquidity9
Value39
Risk29

Recomputed each sync: last updated Oct 28, 11:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Bullish
Holders are holding !!

Only 1.3% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Concentrated ownership

~9.0 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Delisted from store !!

No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.

High volatility

Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.

Fixed supply

Supply is fixed (delisted Aug 3, 2026); every new owner must buy on the market.

Phantom price !!

The median sale price sits 54% above the best standing bid of $6.40; you could not actually sell there right now.

Signals are informational only: not financial advice.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

The clearest feature here is a phantom price: the $9.84 median sale sits 54% above the best standing bid of $6.40, with a 42.6% bid/ask spread and a cumulative bid floor of $4.20. Liquidity scores 10/100, and the current observation shows 3 sales in 24h against 14 active listings, so the $9.86 ask rests on thin support. The supply side is genuinely tight (delisted, 976 units, 397 lifetime buyers, 5th percentile supply growth and dump days over 30 days), and price has been steady at -1.6% on 7d, +2.2% against the market median. But with the ask only 1.6% above fair value, the structural discount is in the bids, not the sticker.

AI-generated from live market data Β· updated 8h ago Β· Not financial advice β€” automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

108/113 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Return (24h)+1.6%β€”β€”
Return (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Return (7d)+0.0%
63
51
Return (14d)+61.0%β€”β€”
Return (30d)+76.1%
48
46
Return (60d)+145.1%β€”β€”
Return (90d)+110.1%
79
77
Return (all)+110.1%β€”β€”
Log return (24h)+1.6%β€”β€”
Log return (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Log return (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Log return (14d)+47.6%β€”β€”
Log return (30d)+56.6%β€”β€”
Log return (60d)+89.6%β€”β€”
Log return (90d)+74.2%β€”β€”
Log return (all)+74.2%β€”β€”
High (24h)$9.86β€”β€”
High (3d)$10.00β€”β€”
High (7d)$10.00β€”β€”
High (14d)$11.62β€”β€”
High (30d)$11.62β€”β€”
High (60d)$11.62β€”β€”
High (90d)$11.62β€”β€”
High (all)$11.62β€”β€”
Low (24h)$9.86β€”β€”
Low (3d)$9.86β€”β€”
Low (7d)$9.86β€”β€”
Low (14d)$6.21β€”β€”
Low (30d)$5.00β€”β€”
Low (60d)$3.80β€”β€”
Low (90d)$3.69β€”β€”
Low (all)$3.69β€”β€”
Mean price (24h)$9.86β€”β€”
Mean price (3d)$9.94β€”β€”
Mean price (7d)$9.97β€”β€”
Mean price (14d)$10.05β€”β€”
Mean price (30d)$8.16β€”β€”
Mean price (60d)$6.75β€”β€”
Mean price (90d)$5.96β€”β€”
Mean price (all)$5.96β€”β€”
Median price (24h)$9.86β€”β€”
Median price (3d)$9.96β€”β€”
Median price (7d)$10.00β€”β€”
Median price (14d)$10.00β€”β€”
Median price (30d)$9.86β€”β€”
Median price (60d)$6.22β€”β€”
Median price (90d)$5.31β€”β€”
Median price (all)$5.31β€”β€”
Range % (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Range % (3d)+1.4%β€”β€”
Range % (7d)+1.4%β€”β€”
Range % (14d)+87.1%β€”β€”
Range % (30d)+132.4%β€”β€”
Range % (60d)+206.2%β€”β€”
Range % (90d)+214.9%β€”β€”
Range % (all)+214.9%β€”β€”
Position in range (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (14d)67β€”β€”
Position in range (30d)73β€”β€”
Position in range (60d)78β€”β€”
Position in range (90d)78
75
67
Position in range (all)78β€”β€”
Distance from high (24h)+1.4%β€”β€”
Distance from high (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from high (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from high (14d)-13.9%β€”β€”
Distance from high (30d)-13.9%β€”β€”
Distance from high (60d)-13.9%β€”β€”
Distance from high (90d)-13.9%
69
65
Distance from high (all)-13.9%β€”β€”
Distance from low (24h)+1.4%β€”β€”
Distance from low (3d)+1.4%β€”β€”
Distance from low (7d)+1.4%β€”β€”
Distance from low (14d)+61.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (30d)+100.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (60d)+163.5%β€”β€”
Distance from low (90d)+171.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (all)+171.0%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (24h)+1.4%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (3d)+0.6%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (7d)+0.3%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (14d)-0.5%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (30d)+22.5%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (60d)+48.2%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (90d)+67.7%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (all)+67.7%β€”β€”
Up days (24h)0β€”β€”
Up days (3d)0β€”β€”
Up days (7d)0β€”β€”
Up days (14d)2β€”β€”
Up days (30d)6β€”β€”
Up days (60d)12β€”β€”
Up days (90d)18β€”β€”
Up days (all)18β€”β€”
Down days (24h)0β€”β€”
Down days (3d)2β€”β€”
Down days (7d)2β€”β€”
Down days (14d)4β€”β€”
Down days (30d)9β€”β€”
Down days (60d)21β€”β€”
Down days (90d)32β€”β€”
Down days (all)32β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (3d)0β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (7d)0β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (14d)33β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (30d)40β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (60d)36β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (90d)36β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (all)36β€”β€”
Up-day streak0.0dβ€”β€”

Trend

19/38 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
SMA (7)$9.97β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (7)+0.3%β€”β€”
SMA (14)$10.05β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (14)-0.5%β€”β€”
SMA (21)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (21)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (50)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (50)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (90)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (90)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (100)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (100)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (7)$9.97β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (7)+0.3%β€”β€”
EMA (14)$10.05β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (14)-0.5%β€”β€”
EMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (7)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (14)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (21)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (30)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (50)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (100)β€”β€”β€”
Trend slope (14d)+0.1%β€”β€”
Trend slope (30d)+3.1%
54
54
Trend slope (60d)+1.9%β€”β€”
Trend slope (90d)+1.4%β€”β€”
Trend slope (all)+1.4%β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (14d)0.00Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (30d)0.59Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (60d)0.64Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (90d)0.63Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (all)0.63Γ—β€”β€”
SMA 7/30 crossβ€”β€”β€”
Days since trend flip6.0dβ€”β€”

Volatility & risk

32/33 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Return stdev (7d)+0.4%β€”β€”
Return stdev (14d)+18.1%β€”β€”
Return stdev (30d)+14.4%
32
31
Return stdev (60d)+14.9%β€”β€”
Return stdev (90d)+12.8%β€”β€”
Return stdev (all)+12.8%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (30d)+5.4%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (60d)+6.7%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (90d)+5.8%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (30d)+20.0%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (60d)+40.4%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (90d)+40.4%
14
10
Max drawdown (all)+40.4%β€”β€”
Current drawdown (90d)+15.1%
31
36
Current drawdown (all)+15.1%β€”β€”
Drawdown duration (90d)11dβ€”β€”
Drawdown duration (all)11dβ€”β€”
Sortino ratio (30d)0.65Γ—
57
58
Sortino ratio (90d)0.33Γ—β€”β€”
Return skew (30d)3.96β€”β€”
Return skew (90d)3.71β€”β€”
Excess kurtosis (30d)17.43β€”β€”
Excess kurtosis (90d)16β€”β€”
Largest up day (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Largest up day (14d)+86.5%β€”β€”
Largest up day (30d)+86.5%β€”β€”
Largest up day (60d)+86.5%β€”β€”
Largest up day (90d)+86.5%β€”β€”
Largest down day (7d)+1.0%β€”β€”
Largest down day (14d)+13.2%β€”β€”
Largest down day (30d)+13.2%β€”β€”
Largest down day (60d)+26.8%β€”β€”
Largest down day (90d)+26.8%β€”β€”

Liquidity

7/20 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Turnover %+0.2%
70
58
On-market %+1.3%
58
66
Days to clear listings6.5d
24
38
Lifetime sales / dayneeds provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime salesβ€”β€”
Liquidity score11
56
58
Listings on book13β€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (7d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (14d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Bid-ask spread %+42.6%β€”β€”
Near-mid bid imbalanceβ€”β€”β€”
Bid-depth trend (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Bid-floor migration (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”

Supply & ownership

12/21 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Supply growth (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Supply growth (14d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Supply growth (30d)+0.0%
5
5
Supply growth (60d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Supply growth (90d)+83.1%β€”β€”
Owner growth (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Owner growth (14d)β€”β€”β€”
Owner growth (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Owner growth (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Owner growth (90d)β€”β€”β€”
Mint rate (7d)0β€”β€”
Mint rate (30d)0β€”β€”
Supply doubling timeβ€”β€”β€”
Copies per owner9.04Γ—
29
28
Top-1 holder share+2.2%
35
39
Top-10 holder share+13.0%
54
56
HHI (top-10)18.95β€”β€”
Whale count (β‰₯5)10β€”β€”
Absorption (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Absorption (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Absorption (90d)β€”β€”β€”

Lifecycle & value

17/18 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Age94dβ€”β€”
Days since fixation86dβ€”β€”
Days until leaving storen/s-86dβ€”β€”
Release-price multipleβ€”β€”β€”
Store-price ratio3.33Γ—β€”β€”
Fair-value residual+1.1%
50
48
Price per scarcity point0.17Γ—β€”β€”
Instant-sell discount+36.0%β€”β€”
Bid-floor backing$4.20β€”β€”
Accumulation score48β€”β€”
Market-relative 7d return+3.1%
63
51
Momentum pillar54
58
69
Scarcity pillar59β€”β€”
Liquidity pillar9β€”β€”
Value pillar39β€”β€”
Risk pillar29β€”β€”
Overall rating45
65
68
Data completeness+80.8%β€”β€”

Relative to market

9/9 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Beta vs market (14d)1.15Γ—β€”β€”
Beta vs market (30d)0.59Γ—
47
53
Beta vs market (90d)0.44Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (14d)0.24Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (30d)0.25Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (90d)0.17Γ—β€”β€”
Return vs market (14d)+3.1%β€”β€”
Return vs market (30d)-102.2%
46
45
Return vs market (90d)-23.2%β€”β€”

Events

12/15 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Spike days (30d)2
25
33
Spike days (60d)4β€”β€”
Spike days (90d)5β€”β€”
Dump days (30d)0
5
5
Dump days (60d)1β€”β€”
Dump days (90d)1β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (30d)+0.1%β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (60d)-0.1%β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (90d)-0.5%β€”β€”
Listing shocks (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listing shocks (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listing shocks (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Net spike bias (30d)2β€”β€”
Net spike bias (60d)3β€”β€”
Net spike bias (90d)4β€”β€”

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. β€œn/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.