Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 77%.
Recomputed each sync: last updated Oct 8, 8:02 AM.
Price up 31.3% in 24h: significant bullish movement.
Down 80.6% in the last 6 hours: near-term weakness.
6,410 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.
Scarcity score 12/100: abundant and liquid.
Only 2.9% of supply listed: low sell pressure.
~14.3 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.
Trading at a 79% discount to the store price.
Average price down 15% over the past week versus the prior week.
Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.
Up 43pts more than the median skin this week: real relative strength.
Trading 58% over our supply/rarity model's estimate; richly priced versus comparable skins.
Permanently in the store at $1.00 — anyone can mint another at that price forever, so there's no scarcity premium and limited upside above the store price.
The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.
Signals are informational only: not financial advice.
The 31.3% gain over 24 hours has already been unwound at the short end, with the 6-hour print down 80.6% and the week still off 15.3%, which is the pattern a 95th percentile spike-days ranking implies. In a single-regime market like this one, sharp moves have tended to fade rather than extend, so the headline rise reads as fade-risk. The ask of $0.21 sits 57.4% above modelled fair value and well above the $0.14 median sale, with a 54.5% bid/ask spread against a $0.12 best bid. Supply is heavy (6,410 units, 194 live listings, scarcity 12/100) and the overall grade is D at the 5th percentile, so waiting for the spread to compress may be worth considering.
AI-generated from live market data · updated 17h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return (24h) | +31.3% | — | — |
| Return (3d) | +31.2% | — | — |
| Return (7d) | +40.0% | 95 | 95 |
| Return (14d) | -12.5% | — | — |
| Return (30d) | -6.7% | 69 | 58 |
| Return (60d) | +61.5% | — | — |
| Return (90d) | -19.2% | 74 | 72 |
| Return (all) | -88.8% | — | — |
| Log return (24h) | +27.2% | — | — |
| Log return (3d) | +27.2% | — | — |
| Log return (7d) | +33.6% | — | — |
| Log return (14d) | -13.4% | — | — |
| Log return (30d) | -6.9% | — | — |
| Log return (60d) | +48.0% | — | — |
| Log return (90d) | -21.4% | — | — |
| Log return (all) | -218.7% | — | — |
| High (24h) | — | — | — |
| High (3d) | $0.21 | — | — |
| High (7d) | $0.21 | — | — |
| High (14d) | $0.24 | — | — |
| High (30d) | $0.28 | — | — |
| High (60d) | $0.28 | — | — |
| High (90d) | $0.28 | — | — |
| High (all) | $1.87 | — | — |
| Low (24h) | — | — | — |
| Low (3d) | $0.16 | — | — |
| Low (7d) | $0.15 | — | — |
| Low (14d) | $0.15 | — | — |
| Low (30d) | $0.15 | — | — |
| Low (60d) | $0.12 | — | — |
| Low (90d) | $0.12 | — | — |
| Low (all) | $0.12 | — | — |
| Mean price (24h) | — | — | — |
| Mean price (3d) | $0.19 | — | — |
| Mean price (7d) | $0.17 | — | — |
| Mean price (14d) | $0.19 | — | — |
| Mean price (30d) | $0.20 | — | — |
| Mean price (60d) | $0.18 | — | — |
| Mean price (90d) | $0.19 | — | — |
| Mean price (all) | $0.45 | — | — |
| Median price (24h) | — | — | — |
| Median price (3d) | $0.19 | — | — |
| Median price (7d) | $0.16 | — | — |
| Median price (14d) | $0.17 | — | — |
| Median price (30d) | $0.20 | — | — |
| Median price (60d) | $0.17 | — | — |
| Median price (90d) | $0.20 | — | — |
| Median price (all) | $0.26 | — | — |
| Range % (24h) | — | — | — |
| Range % (3d) | +31.2% | — | — |
| Range % (7d) | +40.0% | — | — |
| Range % (14d) | +60.0% | — | — |
| Range % (30d) | +86.7% | — | — |
| Range % (60d) | +133.3% | — | — |
| Range % (90d) | +133.3% | — | — |
| Range % (all) | +1458.3% | — | — |
| Position in range (24h) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (3d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (7d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (14d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (30d) | 46 | — | — |
| Position in range (60d) | 56 | — | — |
| Position in range (90d) | 56 | 90 | 85 |
| Position in range (all) | 5 | — | — |
| Distance from high (24h) | — | — | — |
| Distance from high (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (14d) | -12.5% | — | — |
| Distance from high (30d) | -25.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (60d) | -25.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (90d) | -25.0% | 90 | 82 |
| Distance from high (all) | -88.8% | — | — |
| Distance from low (24h) | — | — | — |
| Distance from low (3d) | +31.2% | — | — |
| Distance from low (7d) | +40.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (14d) | +40.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (30d) | +40.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (60d) | +75.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (90d) | +75.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (all) | +75.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (24h) | — | — | — |
| Price vs mean (3d) | +13.5% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (7d) | +23.5% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (14d) | +13.2% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (30d) | +5.6% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (60d) | +17.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (90d) | +8.6% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (all) | -53.6% | — | — |
| Up days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (3d) | 1 | — | — |
| Up days (7d) | 2 | — | — |
| Up days (14d) | 2 | — | — |
| Up days (30d) | 6 | — | — |
| Up days (60d) | 13 | — | — |
| Up days (90d) | 18 | — | — |
| Up days (all) | 45 | — | — |
| Down days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (7d) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (14d) | 4 | — | — |
| Down days (30d) | 9 | — | — |
| Down days (60d) | 16 | — | — |
| Down days (90d) | 26 | — | — |
| Down days (all) | 83 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (24h) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (3d) | 100 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (7d) | 100 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (14d) | 33 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (30d) | 40 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (60d) | 45 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (90d) | 41 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (all) | 35 | — | — |
| Up-day streak | 1.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (7) | — | — | — |
| RSI (14) | — | — | — |
| RSI (21) | — | — | — |
| RSI (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (50) | — | — | — |
| RSI (100) | — | — | — |
| Trend slope (14d) | -3.5% | — | — |
| Trend slope (30d) | -1.2% | 43 | 42 |
| Trend slope (60d) | +0.8% | — | — |
| Trend slope (90d) | -0.2% | — | — |
| Trend slope (all) | -1.4% | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (14d) | 0.31× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (30d) | 0.26× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (60d) | 0.30× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (90d) | 0.04× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (all) | 0.72× | — | — |
| SMA 7/30 cross | — | — | — |
| Days since trend flip | 6.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return stdev (7d) | +14.2% | — | — |
| Return stdev (14d) | +14.5% | — | — |
| Return stdev (30d) | +16.1% | 64 | 63 |
| Return stdev (60d) | +12.8% | — | — |
| Return stdev (90d) | +13.2% | — | — |
| Return stdev (all) | +11.8% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (30d) | +7.9% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (60d) | +7.6% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (90d) | +8.0% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (30d) | +46.4% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (60d) | +46.4% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (90d) | +53.8% | 25 | 29 |
| Max drawdown (all) | +93.6% | — | — |
| Current drawdown (90d) | +25.0% | 10 | 17 |
| Current drawdown (all) | +88.8% | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (90d) | 27d | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (all) | 182d | — | — |
| Sortino ratio (30d) | 0.12× | 75 | 67 |
| Sortino ratio (90d) | 0.07× | — | — |
| Return skew (30d) | 0.82 | — | — |
| Return skew (90d) | 0.65 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (30d) | 0.59 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (90d) | 1.01 | — | — |
| Largest up day (7d) | +31.2% | — | — |
| Largest up day (14d) | +31.2% | — | — |
| Largest up day (30d) | +40.0% | — | — |
| Largest up day (60d) | +40.0% | — | — |
| Largest up day (90d) | +40.0% | — | — |
| Largest down day (7d) | — | — | — |
| Largest down day (14d) | +19.0% | — | — |
| Largest down day (30d) | +28.6% | — | — |
| Largest down day (60d) | +28.6% | — | — |
| Largest down day (90d) | +28.6% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover % | — | — | — |
| On-market % | +2.9% | 77 | 76 |
| Days to clear listings | — | — | — |
| Lifetime sales / day | needs provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime sales | — | — |
| Liquidity score | 25 | 78 | 77 |
| Listings on book | 187 | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Listings trend (7d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (14d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Bid-ask spread % | +54.5% | — | — |
| Near-mid bid imbalance | — | — | — |
| Bid-depth trend (7d) | -100.0% | — | — |
| Bid-floor migration (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply growth (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Supply growth (14d) | +0.1% | — | — |
| Supply growth (30d) | +0.1% | 50 | 50 |
| Supply growth (60d) | +0.3% | — | — |
| Supply growth (90d) | +0.7% | — | — |
| Owner growth (7d)n/s | +0.0% | — | — |
| Owner growth (14d)n/s | +0.0% | — | — |
| Owner growth (30d)n/s | -0.7% | 6 | 6 |
| Owner growth (60d)n/s | -0.7% | — | — |
| Owner growth (90d)n/s | +0.0% | — | — |
| Mint rate (7d) | 0.33 | — | — |
| Mint rate (30d) | 0.21 | — | — |
| Supply doubling time | 22205d | — | — |
| Copies per ownern/s | 14.34× | 84 | 88 |
| Top-1 holder sharen/s | +6.0% | 76 | 80 |
| Top-10 holder sharen/s | +13.9% | 55 | 62 |
| HHI (top-10)n/s | 43.78 | — | — |
| Whale count (≥5)n/s | 10 | — | — |
| Absorption (30d)n/s | -0.8% | 24 | 24 |
| Absorption (60d)n/s | -0.9% | — | — |
| Absorption (90d)n/s | -0.7% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 506d | — | — |
| Days since fixationn/s | — | — | — |
| Days until leaving storen/s | — | — | — |
| Release-price multiple | 0.21× | 21 | 11 |
| Store-price ratio | 0.21× | — | — |
| Fair-value residual | +57.5% | 64 | 70 |
| Price per scarcity point | 0.02× | — | — |
| Instant-sell discount | +42.9% | — | — |
| Bid-floor backing | $0.12 | — | — |
| Accumulation score | 30 | — | — |
| Market-relative 7d return | +42.6% | 95 | 95 |
| Momentum pillar | 22 | 5 | 5 |
| Scarcity pillar | 12 | — | — |
| Liquidity pillar | 18 | — | — |
| Value pillar | 30 | — | — |
| Risk pillar | 37 | — | — |
| Overall rating | 24 | 5 | 5 |
| Data completeness | +76.9% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta vs market (14d) | -0.54× | — | — |
| Beta vs market (30d) | -0.85× | 8 | 10 |
| Beta vs market (90d) | -0.40× | — | — |
| Market correlation (14d) | -0.15× | — | — |
| Market correlation (30d) | -0.20× | — | — |
| Market correlation (90d) | -0.18× | — | — |
| Return vs market (14d) | -12.2% | — | — |
| Return vs market (30d) | +8.3% | 69 | 61 |
| Return vs market (90d) | +16.6% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spike days (30d) | 4 | 95 | 95 |
| Spike days (60d) | 7 | — | — |
| Spike days (90d) | 11 | — | — |
| Dump days (30d) | 3 | 90 | 83 |
| Dump days (60d) | 4 | — | — |
| Dump days (90d) | 9 | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (30d) | -4.5% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (60d) | -6.2% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (90d) | -5.2% | — | — |
| Listing shocks (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Net spike bias (30d) | 1 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (60d) | 3 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (90d) | 2 | — | — |
Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.