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Back to Easter Bonnet 2025

Easter Bonnet 2025full analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 76%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply
Insight Engine v2
38/ 100
D
Momentum66
Scarcity28
Liquidity12
Value40
Risk30

Recomputed each sync: last updated Aug 24, 10:02 PM.

Signal narrative

Slightly bearish
Elevated supply

3,514 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.

Holders are holding !!

Only 1.3% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Concentrated ownership

~8.9 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Delisted from store !!

No longer purchasable from the S&box store. Supply is fixed, so there is potential long-term value.

Weekly downtrend !!

Average price down 16% over the past week versus the prior week.

Oversold (RSI) !!

RSI 27: beaten down and due for a potential bounce.

High volatility

Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

The clearest number here is valuation: at $5.81 the lowest ask sits 107.3% above the model's fair value, and the order book backs that up, with the best standing bid at $4.31 and a cumulative floor of $4.07, leaving the listed price 59% above real demand on a 29.6% spread. Liquidity scores 15/100 against 43 active listings, 3,514 units and 397 unique owners, so the phantom-price read matters. The 7d decline of 15.8%, trailing the market median by 18.2%, is flagged as oversold and historically a recovery setup rather than a breakdown, but fixed post-delisting supply alone has not closed a gap of this size. Overall grade C, 40/100.

AI-generated from live market data Β· updated 7h ago Β· Not financial advice β€” automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

97/113 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Return (24h)+0.0%β€”β€”
Return (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Return (7d)-19.8%
22
22

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. β€œn/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.

Deep drawdown

Down 71% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.

Lagging the market !!

17pts behind the median skin this week, underperforming its peers.

Above modelled fair value !!

Trading 111% over our supply/rarity model's estimate; richly priced versus comparable skins.

Fixed supply

Supply is fixed; every new owner must buy on the market.

Phantom price !!

The listed price sits 68% above the best standing bid of $4.08; you could not actually sell there right now.

Market-wide fear

The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.

Signals are informational only: not financial advice.

Return (14d)
-22.7%
β€”
β€”
Return (30d)-34.0%
37
46
Return (60d)-37.8%β€”β€”
Return (90d)-70.5%
41
40
Return (all)-90.8%β€”β€”
Log return (24h)+0.0%β€”β€”
Log return (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Log return (7d)-22.0%β€”β€”
Log return (14d)-25.8%β€”β€”
Log return (30d)-41.5%β€”β€”
Log return (60d)-47.4%β€”β€”
Log return (90d)-122.1%β€”β€”
Log return (all)-238.5%β€”β€”
High (24h)β€”β€”β€”
High (3d)$5.81β€”β€”
High (7d)$7.24β€”β€”
High (14d)$7.71β€”β€”
High (30d)$9.97β€”β€”
High (60d)$14.12β€”β€”
High (90d)$19.71β€”β€”
High (all)$70.35β€”β€”
Low (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Low (3d)$5.81β€”β€”
Low (7d)$5.79β€”β€”
Low (14d)$5.79β€”β€”
Low (30d)$5.79β€”β€”
Low (60d)$5.79β€”β€”
Low (90d)$5.79β€”β€”
Low (all)$5.79β€”β€”
Mean price (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Mean price (3d)$5.81β€”β€”
Mean price (7d)$6.09β€”β€”
Mean price (14d)$6.94β€”β€”
Mean price (30d)$7.88β€”β€”
Mean price (60d)$8.87β€”β€”
Mean price (90d)$10.33β€”β€”
Mean price (all)$21.17β€”β€”
Median price (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Median price (3d)$5.81β€”β€”
Median price (7d)$5.81β€”β€”
Median price (14d)$7.52β€”β€”
Median price (30d)$7.96β€”β€”
Median price (60d)$8.41β€”β€”
Median price (90d)$9.62β€”β€”
Median price (all)$12.91β€”β€”
Range % (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Range % (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Range % (7d)+25.0%β€”β€”
Range % (14d)+33.2%β€”β€”
Range % (30d)+72.2%β€”β€”
Range % (60d)+143.9%β€”β€”
Range % (90d)+240.3%β€”β€”
Range % (all)+1115.0%β€”β€”
Position in range (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (14d)1β€”β€”
Position in range (30d)0β€”β€”
Position in range (60d)0β€”β€”
Position in range (90d)0
25
22
Position in range (all)0β€”β€”
Distance from high (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Distance from high (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from high (7d)-19.8%β€”β€”
Distance from high (14d)-24.6%β€”β€”
Distance from high (30d)-41.7%β€”β€”
Distance from high (60d)-58.9%β€”β€”
Distance from high (90d)-70.5%
50
50
Distance from high (all)-91.7%β€”β€”
Distance from low (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Distance from low (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (7d)+0.3%β€”β€”
Distance from low (14d)+0.3%β€”β€”
Distance from low (30d)+0.3%β€”β€”
Distance from low (60d)+0.3%β€”β€”
Distance from low (90d)+0.3%β€”β€”
Distance from low (all)+0.3%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs mean (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (7d)-4.6%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (14d)-16.3%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (30d)-26.2%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (60d)-34.5%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (90d)-43.7%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (all)-72.6%β€”β€”
Up days (24h)0β€”β€”
Up days (3d)0β€”β€”
Up days (7d)2β€”β€”
Up days (14d)3β€”β€”
Up days (30d)7β€”β€”
Up days (60d)13β€”β€”
Up days (90d)19β€”β€”
Up days (all)33β€”β€”
Down days (24h)0β€”β€”
Down days (3d)0β€”β€”
Down days (7d)1β€”β€”
Down days (14d)3β€”β€”
Down days (30d)12β€”β€”
Down days (60d)33β€”β€”
Down days (90d)55β€”β€”
Down days (all)90β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (7d)67β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (14d)50β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (30d)37β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (60d)28β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (90d)26β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (all)27β€”β€”
Up-day streak0.0dβ€”β€”

Trend

11/38 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
SMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (21)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (21)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (50)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (50)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (90)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (90)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (100)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (100)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (7)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (14)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (21)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (30)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (50)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (100)β€”β€”β€”
Trend slope (14d)-3.4%β€”β€”
Trend slope (30d)-1.7%
39
47
Trend slope (60d)-0.5%β€”β€”
Trend slope (90d)-0.8%β€”β€”
Trend slope (all)-1.8%β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (14d)0.75Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (30d)0.79Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (60d)0.13Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (90d)0.56Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (all)0.72Γ—β€”β€”
SMA 7/30 crossβ€”β€”β€”
Days since trend flip30dβ€”β€”

Volatility & risk

33/33 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Return stdev (7d)+11.2%β€”β€”
Return stdev (14d)+7.1%β€”β€”
Return stdev (30d)+7.5%
33
25
Return stdev (60d)+9.2%β€”β€”
Return stdev (90d)+9.4%β€”β€”
Return stdev (all)+9.7%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (30d)+6.8%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (60d)+5.7%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (90d)+6.2%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (30d)+41.9%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (60d)+59.0%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (90d)+70.6%
39
37
Max drawdown (all)+91.8%β€”β€”
Current drawdown (90d)+70.5%
50
49
Current drawdown (all)+91.7%β€”β€”
Drawdown duration (90d)87dβ€”β€”
Drawdown duration (all)132dβ€”β€”
Sortino ratio (30d)-0.21Γ—
30
32
Sortino ratio (90d)-0.16Γ—β€”β€”
Return skew (30d)-0.41β€”β€”
Return skew (90d)1.1β€”β€”
Excess kurtosis (30d)2.58β€”β€”
Excess kurtosis (90d)3.3β€”β€”
Largest up day (7d)+0.2%β€”β€”
Largest up day (14d)+2.5%β€”β€”
Largest up day (30d)+14.6%β€”β€”
Largest up day (60d)+33.7%β€”β€”
Largest up day (90d)+33.7%β€”β€”
Largest down day (7d)+20.0%β€”β€”
Largest down day (14d)+20.0%β€”β€”
Largest down day (30d)+20.0%β€”β€”
Largest down day (60d)+20.0%β€”β€”
Largest down day (90d)+20.0%β€”β€”

Liquidity

5/20 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Turnover %β€”β€”β€”
On-market %+1.3%
32
32
Days to clear listingsβ€”β€”β€”
Lifetime sales / dayneeds provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime salesβ€”β€”
Liquidity score12
32
32
Listings on book45β€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (7d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (14d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Bid-ask spread %+34.8%β€”β€”
Near-mid bid imbalanceβ€”β€”β€”
Bid-depth trend (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Bid-floor migration (7d)-2.9%β€”β€”

Supply & ownership

20/21 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Supply growth (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Supply growth (14d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Supply growth (30d)+0.0%
5
5
Supply growth (60d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Supply growth (90d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Owner growth (7d)+0.3%β€”β€”
Owner growth (14d)+0.5%β€”β€”
Owner growth (30d)+0.5%
40
39
Owner growth (60d)+1.0%β€”β€”
Owner growth (90d)+13.5%β€”β€”
Mint rate (7d)0β€”β€”
Mint rate (30d)0β€”β€”
Supply doubling timeβ€”β€”β€”
Copies per owner8.85Γ—
26
27
Top-1 holder share+6.8%
79
83
Top-10 holder share+22.4%
85
90
HHI (top-10)89.21β€”β€”
Whale count (β‰₯5)10β€”β€”
Absorption (30d)+0.5%
50
48
Absorption (60d)+1.0%β€”β€”
Absorption (90d)+13.5%β€”β€”

Lifecycle & value

16/18 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Age485dβ€”β€”
Days since fixationβ€”β€”β€”
Days until leaving storen/sβ€”β€”β€”
Release-price multiple1.94Γ—
79
78
Store-price ratio1.94Γ—β€”β€”
Fair-value residual+110.8%
77
79
Price per scarcity point0.21Γ—β€”β€”
Instant-sell discount+29.8%β€”β€”
Bid-floor backing$4.08β€”β€”
Accumulation score55β€”β€”
Market-relative 7d return-17.3%
22
22
Momentum pillar66
89
86
Scarcity pillar28β€”β€”
Liquidity pillar12β€”β€”
Value pillar40β€”β€”
Risk pillar30β€”β€”
Overall rating38
15
19
Data completeness+75.8%β€”β€”

Relative to market

9/9 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Beta vs market (14d)-0.10Γ—β€”β€”
Beta vs market (30d)-0.14Γ—
24
25
Beta vs market (90d)-0.15Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (14d)-0.07Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (30d)-0.14Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (90d)-0.12Γ—β€”β€”
Return vs market (14d)-19.2%β€”β€”
Return vs market (30d)-50.0%
36
46
Return vs market (90d)-17.2%β€”β€”

Events

11/15 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Spike days (30d)0
5
5
Spike days (60d)3β€”β€”
Spike days (90d)5β€”β€”
Dump days (30d)1
50
36
Dump days (60d)2β€”β€”
Dump days (90d)5β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (60d)+7.9%β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (90d)+6.5%β€”β€”
Listing shocks (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listing shocks (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listing shocks (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Net spike bias (30d)-1β€”β€”
Net spike bias (60d)1β€”β€”
Net spike bias (90d)0β€”β€”