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The dedicated S&box cosmetics market tracker. Live prices, drops and supply for every sbox skin on the Steam Community Market.

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Back to Curly Moustache

Curly Moustachefull analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 75%.

Overall rating

?Fresh drop
Insight Engine v2
51/ 100
C†
Momentum53
Scarcity55
Liquidity20
Value94
Risk18

Recomputed each sync: last updated Sep 30, 2:02 AM.

Signal narrative

Bullish
6-hour surge !!

Up 20.5% in the last 6 hours and accelerating.

Holders are holding !!

Only 2.7% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Concentrated ownership

~13.5 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Item drop !!

A random in-game drop (623 dropped). It was never sold in the store, so supply is capped by the drop rate.

Weekly downtrend !!

Average price down 15% over the past week versus the prior week.

High volatility

Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.

Deep drawdown

Down 93% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.

Below modelled fair value !!

Trading 83% under our supply/rarity model's estimate; looks cheap versus comparable skins.

Fresh drop

Supply is still growing from in-game drops; scarcity is unknowable yet.

Phantom price !!

The listed price sits 343% above the best standing bid of $0.14; you could not actually sell there right now.

Market-wide fear

The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.

Signals are informational only: not financial advice.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

The most notable feature here is the gap between the two sides of the book: the $0.24 ask sits 82.6% below the fair-value model and well under the $0.62 median sale, yet it also floats 343% above the best standing bid of $0.14, with a 40% spread and a liquidity score of 15/100. The 7d move of -15.2% reads as a possible recovery setup rather than a breakdown in this single-regime market, and the +20.5% 6h bounce is early, not confirmed. Ownership is concentrated (46 holders across 619 units, 15 live listings), dump days sit in the 95th percentile, and safety scores 14/100, so the cheap headline price carries real execution risk.

AI-generated from live market data Β· updated 11h ago Β· Not financial advice β€” automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

99/113 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Return (24h)+0.0%β€”β€”
Return (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Return (7d)+0.0%
57
61
Return (14d)-4.0%β€”β€”
Return (30d)-51.0%
7
7
Return (60d)-75.3%β€”β€”
Return (90d)-93.0%
10
8
Return (all)-93.0%β€”β€”
Log return (24h)+0.0%β€”β€”
Log return (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Log return (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Log return (14d)-4.1%β€”β€”
Log return (30d)-71.4%β€”β€”
Log return (60d)-139.7%β€”β€”
Log return (90d)-265.7%β€”β€”
Log return (all)-265.7%β€”β€”
High (24h)β€”β€”β€”
High (3d)$0.24β€”β€”
High (7d)$0.24β€”β€”
High (14d)$0.25β€”β€”
High (30d)$0.49β€”β€”
High (60d)$0.97β€”β€”
High (90d)$3.42β€”β€”
High (all)$3.42β€”β€”
Low (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Low (3d)$0.24β€”β€”
Low (7d)$0.24β€”β€”
Low (14d)$0.18β€”β€”
Low (30d)$0.18β€”β€”
Low (60d)$0.18β€”β€”
Low (90d)$0.18β€”β€”
Low (all)$0.18β€”β€”
Mean price (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Mean price (3d)$0.24β€”β€”
Mean price (7d)$0.24β€”β€”
Mean price (14d)$0.24β€”β€”
Mean price (30d)$0.28β€”β€”
Mean price (60d)$0.38β€”β€”
Mean price (90d)$0.47β€”β€”
Mean price (all)$0.47β€”β€”
Median price (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Median price (3d)$0.24β€”β€”
Median price (7d)$0.24β€”β€”
Median price (14d)$0.24β€”β€”
Median price (30d)$0.26β€”β€”
Median price (60d)$0.30β€”β€”
Median price (90d)$0.30β€”β€”
Median price (all)$0.30β€”β€”
Range % (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Range % (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Range % (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Range % (14d)+38.9%β€”β€”
Range % (30d)+172.2%β€”β€”
Range % (60d)+438.9%β€”β€”
Range % (90d)+1800.0%β€”β€”
Range % (all)+1800.0%β€”β€”
Position in range (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (14d)86β€”β€”
Position in range (30d)19β€”β€”
Position in range (60d)8β€”β€”
Position in range (90d)2
28
28
Position in range (all)2β€”β€”
Distance from high (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Distance from high (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from high (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from high (14d)-4.0%β€”β€”
Distance from high (30d)-51.0%β€”β€”
Distance from high (60d)-75.3%β€”β€”
Distance from high (90d)-93.0%
12
11
Distance from high (all)-93.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Distance from low (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (14d)+33.3%β€”β€”
Distance from low (30d)+33.3%β€”β€”
Distance from low (60d)+33.3%β€”β€”
Distance from low (90d)+33.3%β€”β€”
Distance from low (all)+33.3%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs mean (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (14d)+1.7%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (30d)-14.4%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (60d)-36.0%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (90d)-48.4%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (all)-48.4%β€”β€”
Up days (24h)0β€”β€”
Up days (3d)0β€”β€”
Up days (7d)0β€”β€”
Up days (14d)2β€”β€”
Up days (30d)3β€”β€”
Up days (60d)13β€”β€”
Up days (90d)19β€”β€”
Up days (all)19β€”β€”
Down days (24h)0β€”β€”
Down days (3d)0β€”β€”
Down days (7d)0β€”β€”
Down days (14d)3β€”β€”
Down days (30d)9β€”β€”
Down days (60d)24β€”β€”
Down days (90d)38β€”β€”
Down days (all)38β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (14d)40β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (30d)25β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (60d)35β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (90d)33β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (all)33β€”β€”
Up-day streak0.0dβ€”β€”

Trend

11/38 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
SMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (21)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (21)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (50)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (50)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (90)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (90)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (100)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (100)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (7)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (14)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (21)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (30)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (50)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (100)β€”β€”β€”
Trend slope (14d)-0.5%β€”β€”
Trend slope (30d)-3.0%
19
16
Trend slope (60d)-2.2%β€”β€”
Trend slope (90d)-2.1%β€”β€”
Trend slope (all)-2.1%β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (14d)0.03Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (30d)0.59Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (60d)0.41Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (90d)0.22Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (all)0.22Γ—β€”β€”
SMA 7/30 crossβ€”β€”β€”
Days since trend flip0.0dβ€”β€”

Volatility & risk

31/33 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Return stdev (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Return stdev (14d)+14.6%β€”β€”
Return stdev (30d)+14.4%
58
59
Return stdev (60d)+32.1%β€”β€”
Return stdev (90d)+39.3%β€”β€”
Return stdev (all)+39.3%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (30d)+10.1%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (60d)+17.1%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (90d)+18.4%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (30d)+63.3%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (60d)+81.4%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (90d)+94.7%
88
88
Max drawdown (all)+94.7%β€”β€”
Current drawdown (90d)+93.0%
88
88
Current drawdown (all)+93.0%β€”β€”
Drawdown duration (90d)83dβ€”β€”
Drawdown duration (all)83dβ€”β€”
Sortino ratio (30d)-0.25Γ—
19
16
Sortino ratio (90d)0.24Γ—β€”β€”
Return skew (30d)0.66β€”β€”
Return skew (90d)4.02β€”β€”
Excess kurtosis (30d)1.67β€”β€”
Excess kurtosis (90d)20.93β€”β€”
Largest up day (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Largest up day (14d)+33.3%β€”β€”
Largest up day (30d)+33.3%β€”β€”
Largest up day (60d)+203.4%β€”β€”
Largest up day (90d)+324.0%β€”β€”
Largest down day (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Largest down day (14d)+25.0%β€”β€”
Largest down day (30d)+26.8%β€”β€”
Largest down day (60d)+66.7%β€”β€”
Largest down day (90d)+81.3%β€”β€”

Liquidity

5/20 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Turnover %β€”β€”β€”
On-market %+2.7%
71
74
Days to clear listingsβ€”β€”β€”
Lifetime sales / dayneeds provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime salesβ€”β€”
Liquidity score24
71
74
Listings on book17β€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (7d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (14d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Bid-ask spread %+35.3%β€”β€”
Near-mid bid imbalanceβ€”β€”β€”
Bid-depth trend (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Bid-floor migration (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”

Supply & ownership

19/21 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Supply growth (7d)+4.4%β€”β€”
Supply growth (14d)+6.9%β€”β€”
Supply growth (30d)+21.4%
86
90
Supply growth (60d)+56.3%β€”β€”
Supply growth (90d)+4026.7%β€”β€”
Owner growth (7d)n/s+0.0%β€”β€”
Owner growth (14d)n/s+2.2%β€”β€”
Owner growth (30d)n/s+9.5%
80
81
Owner growth (60d)n/s+39.4%β€”β€”
Owner growth (90d)n/sβ€”β€”β€”
Mint rate (7d)4.33β€”β€”
Mint rate (30d)3.76β€”β€”
Supply doubling time107dβ€”β€”
Copies per ownern/s13.54Γ—
75
72
Top-1 holder sharen/s+2.1%
35
31
Top-10 holder sharen/s+4.3%
9
6
HHI (top-10)n/s5.08β€”β€”
Whale count (β‰₯5)n/s1β€”β€”
Absorption (30d)n/s-11.8%
9
6
Absorption (60d)n/s-16.9%β€”β€”
Absorption (90d)n/sβ€”β€”β€”

Lifecycle & value

13/18 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Ageneeds a release dateβ€”β€”
Days since fixationn/sβ€”β€”β€”
Days until leaving storen/sβ€”β€”β€”
Release-price multipleβ€”β€”β€”
Store-price ratioβ€”β€”β€”
Fair-value residual-82.6%
8
6
Price per scarcity point0.00Γ—β€”β€”
Instant-sell discount+41.7%β€”β€”
Bid-floor backing$0.14β€”β€”
Accumulation score50β€”β€”
Market-relative 7d return+0.4%
57
61
Momentum pillar53
50
50
Scarcity pillar55β€”β€”
Liquidity pillar20β€”β€”
Value pillar94β€”β€”
Risk pillar18β€”β€”
Overall rating56
81
86
Data completeness+74.5%β€”β€”

Relative to market

9/9 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Beta vs market (14d)-1.64Γ—β€”β€”
Beta vs market (30d)-0.55Γ—
15
14
Beta vs market (90d)0.84Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (14d)-0.35Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (30d)-0.17Γ—β€”β€”
Market correlation (90d)0.09Γ—β€”β€”
Return vs market (14d)+9.0%β€”β€”
Return vs market (30d)-40.2%
8
8
Return vs market (90d)-72.7%β€”β€”

Events

12/15 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Spike days (30d)2
75
75
Spike days (60d)7β€”β€”
Spike days (90d)11β€”β€”
Dump days (30d)4
95
95
Dump days (60d)10β€”β€”
Dump days (90d)16β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (30d)-0.0%β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (60d)+0.2%β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (90d)-2.4%β€”β€”
Listing shocks (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listing shocks (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listing shocks (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Net spike bias (30d)-2β€”β€”
Net spike bias (60d)-3β€”β€”
Net spike bias (90d)-5β€”β€”

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. β€œn/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.