Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 80%.
Recomputed each sync: last updated Oct 8, 10:02 PM.
2,576 total supply: already fairly common, limiting the scarcity premium.
Scarcity score 12/100: abundant and liquid.
Only 2.0% of supply listed: low sell pressure.
~6.6 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.
Trading at a 68% discount to the store price.
Average price down 17% over the past week versus the prior week.
Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.
Up 64pts more than the median skin this week: real relative strength.
Trading 269% over our supply/rarity model's estimate; richly priced versus comparable skins.
Permanently in the store at $2.50 — anyone can mint another at that price forever, so there's no scarcity premium and limited upside above the store price.
Buy-side depth dropped sharply in the last 48h while the price held; the floor is being pulled before price has caught down to it.
The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.
Signals are informational only: not financial advice.
The headline number here is valuation: at $0.80 the lowest ask sits 268.7% above the model's fair value, and the median sale price of $0.38 sits closer to the best standing bid of $0.35 than to that ask. The 78.3% bid/ask spread and just 51 active listings against 2,576 units in existence (held by 389 owners) explain the gap, and liquidity scores 13/100 with scarcity at 12/100. The 7d move of -17.3% still beat the market median by 63.6%, placing this in the 95th percentile for 7d and 90d return, and the contrarian read treats the decline as a possible recovery setup rather than a trend. Overall grade is D at 15/100.
AI-generated from live market data · updated 7h ago · Not financial advice — automated analysis for informational purposes only.
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return (24h) | -1.2% | — | — |
| Return (3d) | -1.2% | — | — |
| Return (7d) | +60.0% | 95 | 95 |
| Return (14d) | -4.8% | — | — |
| Return (30d) | -7.0% | 68 | 73 |
| Return (60d) | +31.1% | — | — |
| Return (90d) | +110.5% | 95 | 95 |
| Return (all) | -80.8% | — | — |
| Log return (24h) | -1.2% | — | — |
| Log return (3d) | -1.2% | — | — |
| Log return (7d) | +47.0% | — | — |
| Log return (14d) | -4.9% | — | — |
| Log return (30d) | -7.2% | — | — |
| Log return (60d) | +27.1% | — | — |
| Log return (90d) | +74.4% | — | — |
| Log return (all) | -165.2% | — | — |
| High (24h) | $0.80 | — | — |
| High (3d) | $0.81 | — | — |
| High (7d) | $0.84 | — | — |
| High (14d) | $0.84 | — | — |
| High (30d) | $0.86 | — | — |
| High (60d) | $0.86 | — | — |
| High (90d) | $0.86 | — | — |
| High (all) | $4.48 | — | — |
| Low (24h) | $0.80 | — | — |
| Low (3d) | $0.80 | — | — |
| Low (7d) | $0.50 | — | — |
| Low (14d) | $0.39 | — | — |
| Low (30d) | $0.39 | — | — |
| Low (60d) | $0.38 | — | — |
| Low (90d) | $0.38 | — | — |
| Low (all) | $0.38 | — | — |
| Mean price (24h) | $0.80 | — | — |
| Mean price (3d) | $0.81 | — | — |
| Mean price (7d) | $0.75 | — | — |
| Mean price (14d) | $0.70 | — | — |
| Mean price (30d) | $0.78 | — | — |
| Mean price (60d) | $0.62 | — | — |
| Mean price (90d) | $0.58 | — | — |
| Mean price (all) | $1.08 | — | — |
| Median price (24h) | $0.80 | — | — |
| Median price (3d) | $0.81 | — | — |
| Median price (7d) | $0.81 | — | — |
| Median price (14d) | $0.80 | — | — |
| Median price (30d) | $0.84 | — | — |
| Median price (60d) | $0.65 | — | — |
| Median price (90d) | $0.57 | — | — |
| Median price (all) | $0.65 | — | — |
| Range % (24h) | — | — | — |
| Range % (3d) | +1.3% | — | — |
| Range % (7d) | +68.0% | — | — |
| Range % (14d) | +115.4% | — | — |
| Range % (30d) | +120.5% | — | — |
| Range % (60d) | +126.3% | — | — |
| Range % (90d) | +126.3% | — | — |
| Range % (all) | +1078.9% | — | — |
| Position in range (24h) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (3d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (7d) | — | — | — |
| Position in range (14d) | 91 | — | — |
| Position in range (30d) | 87 | — | — |
| Position in range (60d) | 88 | — | — |
| Position in range (90d) | 88 | 95 | 95 |
| Position in range (all) | 10 | — | — |
| Distance from high (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (3d) | -1.2% | — | — |
| Distance from high (7d) | -4.8% | — | — |
| Distance from high (14d) | -4.8% | — | — |
| Distance from high (30d) | -7.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (60d) | -7.0% | — | — |
| Distance from high (90d) | -7.0% | 95 | 95 |
| Distance from high (all) | -82.1% | — | — |
| Distance from low (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (3d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (7d) | +60.0% | — | — |
| Distance from low (14d) | +105.1% | — | — |
| Distance from low (30d) | +105.1% | — | — |
| Distance from low (60d) | +110.5% | — | — |
| Distance from low (90d) | +110.5% | — | — |
| Distance from low (all) | +110.5% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (24h) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (3d) | -0.6% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (7d) | +6.4% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (14d) | +13.8% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (30d) | +2.1% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (60d) | +28.3% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (90d) | +37.8% | — | — |
| Price vs mean (all) | -25.8% | — | — |
| Up days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up days (7d) | 1 | — | — |
| Up days (14d) | 2 | — | — |
| Up days (30d) | 3 | — | — |
| Up days (60d) | 9 | — | — |
| Up days (90d) | 14 | — | — |
| Up days (all) | 42 | — | — |
| Down days (24h) | 0 | — | — |
| Down days (3d) | 1 | — | — |
| Down days (7d) | 2 | — | — |
| Down days (14d) | 4 | — | — |
| Down days (30d) | 7 | — | — |
| Down days (60d) | 13 | — | — |
| Down days (90d) | 17 | — | — |
| Down days (all) | 68 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (24h) | — | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (3d) | 0 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (7d) | 33 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (14d) | 33 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (30d) | 30 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (60d) | 41 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (90d) | 45 | — | — |
| Up-day ratio (all) | 38 | — | — |
| Up-day streak | 0.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (7) | — | — | — |
| SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (14) | — | — | — |
| SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (21) | — | — | — |
| SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (30) | — | — | — |
| SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (50) | — | — | — |
| SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (90) | — | — | — |
| SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| Price vs SMA (100) | — | — | — |
| EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (7) | — | — | — |
| EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (14) | — | — | — |
| EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| Price vs EMA (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (7) | — | — | — |
| RSI (14) | — | — | — |
| RSI (21) | — | — | — |
| RSI (30) | — | — | — |
| RSI (50) | — | — | — |
| RSI (100) | — | — | — |
| Trend slope (14d) | +0.5% | — | — |
| Trend slope (30d) | -1.2% | 44 | 42 |
| Trend slope (60d) | +1.5% | — | — |
| Trend slope (90d) | +0.8% | — | — |
| Trend slope (all) | -1.3% | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (14d) | 0.01× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (30d) | 0.24× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (60d) | 0.47× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (90d) | 0.40× | — | — |
| Trend fit R² (all) | 0.49× | — | — |
| SMA 7/30 cross | — | — | — |
| Days since trend flip | 3.0d | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return stdev (7d) | +26.8% | — | — |
| Return stdev (14d) | +28.0% | — | — |
| Return stdev (30d) | +18.1% | 71 | 67 |
| Return stdev (60d) | +15.5% | — | — |
| Return stdev (90d) | +14.3% | — | — |
| Return stdev (all) | +13.3% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (30d) | +15.8% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (60d) | +13.7% | — | — |
| Downside deviation (90d) | +13.1% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (30d) | +54.7% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (60d) | +54.7% | — | — |
| Max drawdown (90d) | +54.7% | 26 | 24 |
| Max drawdown (all) | +91.5% | — | — |
| Current drawdown (90d) | +7.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Current drawdown (all) | +82.1% | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (90d) | 29d | — | — |
| Drawdown duration (all) | 180d | — | — |
| Sortino ratio (30d) | 0.08× | 69 | 73 |
| Sortino ratio (90d) | 0.15× | — | — |
| Return skew (30d) | 1.63 | — | — |
| Return skew (90d) | 1.65 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (30d) | 8.49 | — | — |
| Excess kurtosis (90d) | 7.54 | — | — |
| Largest up day (7d) | +68.0% | — | — |
| Largest up day (14d) | +68.0% | — | — |
| Largest up day (30d) | +68.0% | — | — |
| Largest up day (60d) | +68.0% | — | — |
| Largest up day (90d) | +68.0% | — | — |
| Largest down day (7d) | +3.6% | — | — |
| Largest down day (14d) | +44.3% | — | — |
| Largest down day (30d) | +44.3% | — | — |
| Largest down day (60d) | +44.3% | — | — |
| Largest down day (90d) | +44.3% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover % | — | — | — |
| On-market % | +2.0% | 60 | 60 |
| Days to clear listings | — | — | — |
| Lifetime sales / day | needs provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime sales | — | — |
| Liquidity score | 18 | 60 | 61 |
| Listings on book | 51 | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Amihud illiquidity (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Zero-sale-day share (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam sales history | — | — |
| Listings trend (7d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (14d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listings trend (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Bid-ask spread % | +71.2% | — | — |
| Near-mid bid imbalance | — | — | — |
| Bid-depth trend (7d) | — | — | — |
| Bid-floor migration (7d) | +0.0% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply growth (7d) | +0.1% | — | — |
| Supply growth (14d) | +0.1% | — | — |
| Supply growth (30d) | +0.1% | 50 | 51 |
| Supply growth (60d) | +0.2% | — | — |
| Supply growth (90d) | +0.9% | — | — |
| Owner growth (7d)n/s | +0.3% | — | — |
| Owner growth (14d)n/s | +0.0% | — | — |
| Owner growth (30d)n/s | -0.8% | 5 | 5 |
| Owner growth (60d)n/s | -0.3% | — | — |
| Owner growth (90d)n/s | +1.0% | — | — |
| Mint rate (7d) | 0.33 | — | — |
| Mint rate (30d) | 0.1 | — | — |
| Supply doubling time | 17845d | — | — |
| Copies per ownern/s | 6.62× | 14 | 14 |
| Top-1 holder sharen/s | +2.5% | 41 | 35 |
| Top-10 holder sharen/s | +11.3% | 45 | 36 |
| HHI (top-10)n/s | 18.04 | — | — |
| Whale count (≥5)n/s | 10 | — | — |
| Absorption (30d)n/s | -0.9% | 23 | 23 |
| Absorption (60d)n/s | -0.5% | — | — |
| Absorption (90d)n/s | +0.1% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 687d | — | — |
| Days since fixationn/s | — | — | — |
| Days until leaving storen/s | — | — | — |
| Release-price multiple | 0.32× | 32 | 34 |
| Store-price ratio | 0.32× | — | — |
| Fair-value residual | +268.6% | 90 | 89 |
| Price per scarcity point | 0.07× | — | — |
| Instant-sell discount | +52.5% | — | — |
| Bid-floor backing | $0.35 | — | — |
| Accumulation score | 25 | — | — |
| Market-relative 7d return | +63.6% | 95 | 95 |
| Momentum pillar | 29 | 5 | 5 |
| Scarcity pillar | 12 | — | — |
| Liquidity pillar | 13 | — | — |
| Value pillar | 5 | — | — |
| Risk pillar | 36 | — | — |
| Overall rating | 15 | 5 | 5 |
| Data completeness | +80.1% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta vs market (14d) | 0.17× | — | — |
| Beta vs market (30d) | 0.28× | 48 | 48 |
| Beta vs market (90d) | 0.37× | — | — |
| Market correlation (14d) | 0.03× | — | — |
| Market correlation (30d) | 0.06× | — | — |
| Market correlation (90d) | 0.14× | — | — |
| Return vs market (14d) | -0.9% | — | — |
| Return vs market (30d) | +11.0% | 70 | 75 |
| Return vs market (90d) | +125.2% | — | — |
| Indicator | Value | vs market | vs cohort |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spike days (30d) | 2 | 75 | 75 |
| Spike days (60d) | 4 | — | — |
| Spike days (90d) | 7 | — | — |
| Dump days (30d) | 2 | 50 | 50 |
| Dump days (60d) | 3 | — | — |
| Dump days (90d) | 4 | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (30d) | -1.8% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (60d) | +0.7% | — | — |
| Post-spike reversion (90d) | -1.0% | — | — |
| Listing shocks (30d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (60d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Listing shocks (90d) | needs provenance-safe Steam listings history | — | — |
| Net spike bias (30d) | 0 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (60d) | 1 | — | — |
| Net spike bias (90d) | 3 | — | — |
Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. “n/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.