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The dedicated S&box cosmetics market tracker. Live prices, drops and supply for every sbox skin on the Steam Community Market.

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Back to Bear Hat

Bear Hatfull analytics

Every indicator the Insight Engine computes for this item: 267 values across 8 families, each ranked against the whole S&box market and its type cohort. Informational only, not financial advice. Data completeness: 62%.

Overall rating

?Fixed supply
Insight Engine v2
40/ 100
C
Momentum28
Scarcity57
Liquidity29
Value50
Risk37

Recomputed each sync: last updated Oct 9, 12:02 AM.

Signal narrative

Bullish
Negative momentum

Price down 4.8% in 24h: a mild downward trend.

Holders are holding !!

Only 3.9% of supply listed: low sell pressure.

Concentrated ownership

~10.9 units per owner; a few holders control much of the supply.

Rotation just ended !!

Left the store Sep 28 β€” supply is now fixed at 612 units, and every new owner must buy on the market.

Near all-time low !!

Trading within 5% of its lowest recorded price.

High volatility

Daily price swings are large; expect a bumpy ride in either direction.

Deep drawdown

Down 41% from its 90-day peak: a possible recovery play if demand returns.

Lagging the market !!

28pts behind the median skin this week, underperforming its peers.

Holder base widening

Unique owners up 12% this week; new holders are arriving.

Fixed supply

Supply is fixed (delisted Sep 28, 2026); every new owner must buy on the market.

Phantom price !!

The listed price sits 59% above the best standing bid of $4.03; you could not actually sell there right now.

Market-wide fear

The broader S&box market is in fear territory right now: sellers have the upper hand across the board.

Signals are informational only: not financial advice.

Signal Analysis

Insight Engine

The headline $6.41 ask is largely notional: the best standing bid sits at $4.02, putting the listed price 59% above real demand, with a 45.8% bid/ask spread and a cumulative bid floor of $2.78. That gap matters more than the 24h move of -4.8% or the 7d underperformance of -28.4% against the market median, because liquidity scores just 23/100 with 24 live listings against 56 unique owners of 612 total units. Trend slope and Sortino both sit in the 5th percentile, and the item is near its all-time low. Fair value is effectively met (+0.2%), so the bullish fixed-supply and widening-holder reads only pay off at bid-side pricing, not at the posted ask.

AI-generated from live market data Β· updated 9h ago Β· Not financial advice β€” automated analysis for informational purposes only.

Price action

86/113 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Return (24h)-4.8%β€”β€”
Return (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Return (7d)-32.0%
8
9
Return (14d)-41.5%β€”β€”
Return (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Return (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Return (90d)β€”β€”β€”
Return (all)-41.5%β€”β€”
Log return (24h)-4.9%β€”β€”
Log return (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Log return (7d)-38.5%β€”β€”
Log return (14d)-53.5%β€”β€”
Log return (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Log return (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Log return (90d)β€”β€”β€”
Log return (all)-53.5%β€”β€”
High (24h)β€”β€”β€”
High (3d)$6.41β€”β€”
High (7d)$9.42β€”β€”
High (14d)$10.95β€”β€”
High (30d)$10.95β€”β€”
High (60d)$10.95β€”β€”
High (90d)$10.95β€”β€”
High (all)$10.95β€”β€”
Low (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Low (3d)$6.41β€”β€”
Low (7d)$6.41β€”β€”
Low (14d)$6.41β€”β€”
Low (30d)$6.41β€”β€”
Low (60d)$6.41β€”β€”
Low (90d)$6.41β€”β€”
Low (all)$6.41β€”β€”
Mean price (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Mean price (3d)$6.41β€”β€”
Mean price (7d)$7.98β€”β€”
Mean price (14d)$8.77β€”β€”
Mean price (30d)$8.77β€”β€”
Mean price (60d)$8.77β€”β€”
Mean price (90d)$8.77β€”β€”
Mean price (all)$8.77β€”β€”
Median price (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Median price (3d)$6.41β€”β€”
Median price (7d)$8.67β€”β€”
Median price (14d)$8.67β€”β€”
Median price (30d)$8.67β€”β€”
Median price (60d)$8.67β€”β€”
Median price (90d)$8.67β€”β€”
Median price (all)$8.67β€”β€”
Range % (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Range % (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Range % (7d)+47.0%β€”β€”
Range % (14d)+70.8%β€”β€”
Range % (30d)+70.8%β€”β€”
Range % (60d)+70.8%β€”β€”
Range % (90d)+70.8%β€”β€”
Range % (all)+70.8%β€”β€”
Position in range (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (14d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (90d)β€”β€”β€”
Position in range (all)β€”β€”β€”
Distance from high (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Distance from high (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from high (7d)-32.0%β€”β€”
Distance from high (14d)-41.5%β€”β€”
Distance from high (30d)-41.5%β€”β€”
Distance from high (60d)-41.5%β€”β€”
Distance from high (90d)-41.5%
73
76
Distance from high (all)-41.5%β€”β€”
Distance from low (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Distance from low (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (14d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (30d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (60d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (90d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Distance from low (all)+0.0%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs mean (3d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (7d)-19.7%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (14d)-26.9%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (30d)-26.9%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (60d)-26.9%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (90d)-26.9%β€”β€”
Price vs mean (all)-26.9%β€”β€”
Up days (24h)0β€”β€”
Up days (3d)0β€”β€”
Up days (7d)0β€”β€”
Up days (14d)0β€”β€”
Up days (30d)0β€”β€”
Up days (60d)0β€”β€”
Up days (90d)0β€”β€”
Up days (all)0β€”β€”
Down days (24h)0β€”β€”
Down days (3d)0β€”β€”
Down days (7d)3β€”β€”
Down days (14d)5β€”β€”
Down days (30d)5β€”β€”
Down days (60d)5β€”β€”
Down days (90d)5β€”β€”
Down days (all)5β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (24h)β€”β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (3d)β€”β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (7d)0β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (14d)0β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (30d)0β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (60d)0β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (90d)0β€”β€”
Up-day ratio (all)0β€”β€”
Up-day streak0.0dβ€”β€”

Trend

10/38 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
SMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (21)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (21)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (50)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (50)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (90)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (90)β€”β€”β€”
SMA (100)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs SMA (100)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (7)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (14)β€”β€”β€”
EMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
Price vs EMA (30)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (7)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (14)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (21)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (30)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (50)β€”β€”β€”
RSI (100)β€”β€”β€”
Trend slope (14d)-9.0%β€”β€”
Trend slope (30d)-9.0%
5
5
Trend slope (60d)-9.0%β€”β€”
Trend slope (90d)-9.0%β€”β€”
Trend slope (all)-9.0%β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (14d)0.96Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (30d)0.96Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (60d)0.96Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (90d)0.96Γ—β€”β€”
Trend fit RΒ² (all)0.96Γ—β€”β€”
SMA 7/30 crossβ€”β€”β€”
Days since trend flipβ€”β€”β€”

Volatility & risk

28/33 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Return stdev (7d)+11.0%β€”β€”
Return stdev (14d)+8.9%β€”β€”
Return stdev (30d)+8.9%
31
28
Return stdev (60d)+8.9%β€”β€”
Return stdev (90d)+8.9%β€”β€”
Return stdev (all)+8.9%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (30d)+7.5%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (60d)+7.5%β€”β€”
Downside deviation (90d)+7.5%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (30d)+41.5%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (60d)+41.5%β€”β€”
Max drawdown (90d)+41.5%
6
5
Max drawdown (all)+41.5%β€”β€”
Current drawdown (90d)+41.5%
27
24
Current drawdown (all)+41.5%β€”β€”
Drawdown duration (90d)9.0dβ€”β€”
Drawdown duration (all)9.0dβ€”β€”
Sortino ratio (30d)-1.10Γ—
5
5
Sortino ratio (90d)-1.10Γ—β€”β€”
Return skew (30d)-1.33β€”β€”
Return skew (90d)-1.33β€”β€”
Excess kurtosis (30d)2.13β€”β€”
Excess kurtosis (90d)2.13β€”β€”
Largest up day (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Largest up day (14d)β€”β€”β€”
Largest up day (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Largest up day (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Largest up day (90d)β€”β€”β€”
Largest down day (7d)+22.4%β€”β€”
Largest down day (14d)+22.4%β€”β€”
Largest down day (30d)+22.4%β€”β€”
Largest down day (60d)+22.4%β€”β€”
Largest down day (90d)+22.4%β€”β€”

Liquidity

5/20 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Turnover %β€”β€”β€”
On-market %+3.9%
83
86
Days to clear listingsβ€”β€”β€”
Lifetime sales / dayneeds provenance-safe secondary-market lifetime salesβ€”β€”
Liquidity score32
84
86
Listings on book24β€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Amihud illiquidity (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Zero-sale-day share (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam sales historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (7d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (14d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listings trend (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Bid-ask spread %+31.9%β€”β€”
Near-mid bid imbalanceβ€”β€”β€”
Bid-depth trend (7d)β€”β€”β€”
Bid-floor migration (7d)-42.7%β€”β€”

Supply & ownership

11/21 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Supply growth (7d)+0.0%β€”β€”
Supply growth (14d)+63.6%β€”β€”
Supply growth (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Supply growth (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Supply growth (90d)β€”β€”β€”
Owner growth (7d)+12.0%β€”β€”
Owner growth (14d)+115.4%β€”β€”
Owner growth (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Owner growth (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Owner growth (90d)β€”β€”β€”
Mint rate (7d)0β€”β€”
Mint rate (30d)21.1β€”β€”
Supply doubling timeβ€”β€”β€”
Copies per owner10.93Γ—
48
50
Top-1 holder share+3.4%
53
47
Top-10 holder share+16.7%
65
56
HHI (top-10)36.68β€”β€”
Whale count (β‰₯5)9β€”β€”
Absorption (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Absorption (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Absorption (90d)β€”β€”β€”

Lifecycle & value

17/18 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Age50dβ€”β€”
Days since fixation10dβ€”β€”
Days until leaving storen/s-10dβ€”β€”
Release-price multipleβ€”β€”β€”
Store-price ratio1.60Γ—β€”β€”
Fair-value residual+0.2%
49
50
Price per scarcity point0.11Γ—β€”β€”
Instant-sell discount+37.1%β€”β€”
Bid-floor backing$2.78β€”β€”
Accumulation score39β€”β€”
Market-relative 7d return-28.4%
8
9
Momentum pillar28
5
5
Scarcity pillar57β€”β€”
Liquidity pillar29β€”β€”
Value pillar50β€”β€”
Risk pillar37β€”β€”
Overall rating40
22
18
Data completeness+62.3%β€”β€”

Relative to market

1/9 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Beta vs market (14d)β€”β€”β€”
Beta vs market (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Beta vs market (90d)β€”β€”β€”
Market correlation (14d)β€”β€”β€”
Market correlation (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Market correlation (90d)β€”β€”β€”
Return vs market (14d)-46.7%β€”β€”
Return vs market (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Return vs market (90d)β€”β€”β€”

Events

9/15 populated
IndicatorValuevs marketvs cohort
Spike days (30d)0
5
5
Spike days (60d)0β€”β€”
Spike days (90d)0β€”β€”
Dump days (30d)1
25
25
Dump days (60d)1β€”β€”
Dump days (90d)1β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (30d)β€”β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (60d)β€”β€”β€”
Post-spike reversion (90d)β€”β€”β€”
Listing shocks (30d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listing shocks (60d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Listing shocks (90d)needs provenance-safe Steam listings historyβ€”β€”
Net spike bias (30d)-1β€”β€”
Net spike bias (60d)-1β€”β€”
Net spike bias (90d)-1β€”β€”

Percentiles are computed against the latest cross-sectional market snapshot. β€œn/s” marks indicators not scoring in this item's lifecycle stage. All figures are informational only, not financial advice.