The Week Ahead — Week 23, 2026

The Setup

Another brutal print on the index — listings value down 23.7% across the week — and yet the top of the momentum board is louder than it's been all month. When the tape bleeds this hard and a handful of items still climb, you're not looking at broad demand; you're looking at conviction buyers picking specific shelves. The standouts this week skew toward scarcity and accelerating trend, with a side helping of Scientist-kit volume that doesn't look random.

What We're Watching

Neck Tattoo — 72.2 at $1,693.50. The 55% weekly gain with an accelerating slope is the cleanest signal on the board, but at this price tier the float is thin and prone to whipsaw. The setup leans continuation if a single fresh listing prints above last clear — invalidated quickly if two sellers undercut and nothing absorbs.

Fanny Pack — 62.4 at $7.66. A 337% pop off a sub-$2 base is the kind of move that always demands a discount — half of it is base effect, the other half is a real scarcity score of 73. Likely to give back some this week; we're watching whether it holds north of $5 rather than chasing the wick.

Lumberjack Shirt — 60.1 at $2.92. Similar profile to Fanny Pack but tamer — 80% up, scarcity in the low 70s. The cheap costume-piece rotation we've flagged before keeps showing up; the call is grind-higher into the week unless the broader index puts in another leg down.

Love Heart Boxers — 58.2 at $0.37. Scarcity 91 is the headline here, not the dollar move. At this price the asymmetry is interesting on paper but the spread eats you; watching for whether anyone actually takes the offer side.

Unusual Volume

The Scientist set lit up across three pieces — Hazmat at 3.8×, Shoes 2.3×, Respirator 2.0×. Coordinated volume across a kit usually means someone's building a look, and that's worth tracking even with no price confirmation yet.

Closing

Down weeks like this one reward patience over chase. The momentum board is doing its job — surfacing where conviction still lives — but with the index off nearly a quarter, the wider question is whether next week's print stabilizes or extends. We'll know more by Wednesday.

Full Momentum Ranking

1. Neck Tattoo — 72.2 · $1,693.50
2. Crash Test Dummy — 62.7 · $25.00
3. Fanny Pack — 62.4 · $7.66
4. Lumberjack Shirt — 60.1 · $2.92
5. Hard Hat — 59.3 · $1,649.22
6. Love Heart Boxers — 58.2 · $0.37
7. Halloween Jeans 2025 — 57.3 · $9.21
8. Fisherman — 57.0 · $2.41

This is our forward-looking take, not a trade recommendation. Published Mondays; the Friday companion wraps up what actually happened. Subscribe to get both in your inbox.